Grand Final Running Order - What we know

[popavapeur]

Official Running Order below

- - - 1ST HALF
1. Czech Republic
2. Romania
3. Portugal
4. Finland
5. Switzerland
6. France
7. Norway
8. Armenia
9. Italy
10. Spain
11. The Netherlands
12. Ukraine
13. Germany
- - -
14. Lithuania
15. Azerbaijan
16. Belgium
17. Greece
18. Iceland
19. Moldova
20. Sweden
21. Australia
22. United Kingdom
23. Poland
24. Serbia
25. Estonia

 

[Bobjan FR]

In despite of what people wrote, i think France will get something between 1-7, maybe the 1, and spain get a spot between 11-13.
I suppose the spots 8 and 10 will be for weak songs, to not shadow italy.

There will be probably at least strong candidate from the semis getting a 1st half, and they will give him one of the others 11-13 spots.

 

[Mainshow]

After seeing uptempo tracks getting the "death slots" in both semis - Latvia and Israel, respectively, I hope to see a change this year.
I've already given up on this but it's really unfair to see mostly "Eastern European" ballads at #2 every year.
If Montenegro and Azerbaijan qualify, I can see one of them getting the "death slot" in the Grand Final.

Spain's chances to kick off the competition are very high, imo. I'd place Spain to open the show.

Germany will probably start around 14 or 16 since it was drawn into the 2nd half.

I can see the UK closing the show. The EBU tends to give that slot to a big 5 country most of the time (minus San Marino 2021 and Armenia 2016 if I'm not mistaken). There's clearly some favoritism going on but apart from that, it would make sense due to the big prop (that's also why Armenia is last in semi 1, imo).

 

[Synergise]

Germany drew 1st half, not 2nd half.

Spain or France would be great openers. Given the odds, they might prefer to give the opener to France.

 

[Ezio]

I would open the show with Germany or France and put Spain to close the first half.

UK looks like something between 18th and 22nd rank to me.

 

[marty]

Spain would be the only good opener out of this three. Germany is too slow and dark, France too artsy. I dont think we will see a big5 country opening the show.

 

[EscUKFan]

I think a lot depends on what halves the qualifiers draw. France feels like it’ll be about 5th/6th, I can see Austria/Ireland/Cyprus etc opening.

I imagine Spain will be getting a pimp slot, definitely somewhere in the 10-13 bracket. Germany either 2-4 or 12th, between two favourites.

Obviously I’m biased here but you’d imagine the UK would be getting a very good slot, either 17th-18th (whenever the break is) or 23rd-24th. Can’t remember the last time they put a big favourite on last? Il Volo?

 

[popavapeur]

I don't think they'll put Cyprus first if they draw 1st half as they've been 1st last year.

For now Spain shouldn't be first as it has potential to be top 5 and fight for the win but I don't see France being first either, that's too much of a song/staging to be first. Like you won't put Go_A first you know. So either a nice uptempo song draws first half and they'll be catapulted to open the show (hello Ireland) but if it weren't for the "favourite" status of Spain, it's written opener all over it.
Slick, high end performance uptempo, pop, easy listening song that draws Europe's attention.
I won't put Norway or Austria first too even Czech Republic, they're too out there as well... I knew with the bunch of slows songs we have that it's gonna be complicated to make a running order and I'm very interested in how they're gonna do it this year more than ever.
But we're not there yet, let's wait for Tuesday night !

and Germany 2nd.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

If Austria qualifies and ends up in the first half I bet my hat they will have starting position #1

 

[goncalovieira]

Well, I just pray to see Portugal in the second half if we reach the final.

 

[Mainshow]

I don't think they'll put Cyprus first if they draw 1st half as they've been 1st last year.

Albania 2019 and 2021 say hello. The country has been given the "death slot" two consecutive times (**** producers).

 

[midnightsun]

I don’t think one of the big 5 is that early, usually they are rather late because there is a big viewership in these countries and lots of voting potential due to many inhabitants so if I was the producer I would put them as late as possible to make people watch as long as possible… I think France and Germany will be around 11-12, Spain around 6. If they rely too much on the betting odds, Germany could get the 2-4 spot.

UK will be quite late, I can even see it closing the final because the theme (up in space, go fly away, closing the chapter earth and up in the sky) fits quite well.

 

[Ezio]

If Austria gets to open the GF, we better not qualify. Lumix probably wont care so much, as long as he gets exposed to a big audience.

We haven't had a good draw since 2016, and the odds for some obscure reason already say that Halo is a failure.

 

[Mainshow]

In a "perfect world", producers would only look at the songs and the props they need and don´t give a damn about Big 5 countries (and their viewing figures), semi final results and betting odds.

Personally, I wouldn´t mind starting with a mid-tempo song which will be catchy enough to gain viewers´ attention, e.g. Armenia?
It´s cute, inoffensive but has a strange "sing-along around a campfire and I have to clap to the beat" kind of feeling.

 

[Mainshow]

I really enjoyed this video which was posted by @Ezio in the Austrian thread

It perfectly shows that the draw (first half vs. second half) doesn´t really matter for 22+ countries since the Top 10 has been compiled by entries which performed in the first and second halves (almost) equally. 54% of the last 25 years´s Top 10´s performed in the second half (2021 is missing) whereas 46% of the Top 10´s had to perform in the first half.
Personally, I don´t think that it´s a significant difference.
However, the running order is more important if you look at the Top 3 or the overall winner - that´s quite understandable but it doesn´t justify the "unhappy faces" of delegations, fans and artists alike when performers draw "the first half" at press conferences - I mean.. as long as you don´t expect to win, you will be fine (it doesn´t decrease your chances to be part of the Top 10).

 

[ayzelto]

I said it before in another post, but I don't think any of the big 5 will open the show either. Depending on their qualification and draw, I can see Czech Republic, San Marino, Estonia, Romania, Armenia or Ireland opening the show (they first have to qualify of course). Seeing what they've done in the previous years, they hardly ever put a favourite or someone who has won the semifinal. And I don't think they will put France or Spain as they are very big countries and favourites to win at the moment.

Having said that, this is my prediction:

Germany: it's obviously the weakest entry out of the big 5, so I would say 2nd, 3rd or (maximum) 4th place. Not further.
France: This could perfectly go before Italy, although I expect something like 6th-7th.
Spain: I would say 11th-12th.
United Kingdom: I think the UK's closing the show this year, like Il Volo in 2015.

 

[Ezio]

I really enjoyed this video which was posted by @Ezio in the Austrian thread

It perfectly shows that the draw (first half vs. second half) doesn´t really matter for 22+ countries since the Top 10 has been compiled by entries which performed in the first and second halves (almost) equally. 54% of the last 25 years´s Top 10´s performed in the second half (2021 is missing) whereas 46% of the Top 10´s had to perform in the first half.
Personally, I don´t think that it´s a significant difference.
However, the running order is more important if you look at the Top 3 or the overall winner - that´s quite understandable but it doesn´t justify the "unhappy faces" of delegations, fans and artists alike when performers draw "the first half" at press conferences - I mean.. as long as you don´t expect to win, you will be fine (it doesn´t decrease your chances to be part of the Top 10).

This is me and thanks to you I'm proud.

The statistics end with 2019.

2021, the qualification rate from second half is 6/10 from Semi 1 and 6/10 from Semi 2. By then 19 times out of 30 times, the qualification rate from 2nd half is higher.

Also, the statistics start with 1995, when until 1997 the juries were still in full force. Nocturne, Dinle and Mysterious Women ended up in the Top 3 with extremly low starting positions. So, starting with 1998, the advantage of 2nd half would be even more obvious.

I would introduce App live voting to mitigate the serial and recency biases.

 

[midnightsun]

In a "perfect world", producers would only look at the songs and the props they need and don´t give a damn about Big 5 countries (and their viewing figures), semi final results and betting odds.

I know. Same.

If it was up to me we could abolish the big 5 and draw random order, just like before 2013. I‘ve tried to look through the eyes of the producers… it‘s a pity Eurovision is no longer just a music show with interval action but a perfectly planned event with rehearsals that are streamed, „red“ carpet, shenanigans weeks before ESC etc.

I do enjoy it, yes, but honestly, I wouldn’t miss it if we did not have all of this.
I’ve been watching the content since 1986 and not one single year I was unhappy with just watching the main (grand) final, I was as excited as I am now.

And I always remember 2011… people were going crazy that 3 favourites started right after each other… I think it was Sweden, Ireland and ?… and they all started quite early, around spot 7,8 I think… and almost all of them did well and no one was bored because the popular songs already aired so early.

 

[HayashiM]

I would love to see an NHL-kind of draft for the positions - every nation choosing their running order based on their performances in the last 5 years, first choice going to the last nation on this ranking, then working the way towards the top. It could be somewhat problematic of course, but still fun - the participants themselves would take care of the producers problem of how to make things as interesting as possible, because the countries want a running order that makes them stand out. Plus the long term heavyweights could prove their worth even when starting from positions people usually don't want (which the heavyweights will never ever be allocated to under the current system).

 

[popavapeur]

I do agree with : The running order matters

BUT at the same time, I don't think putting songs that have no chance at winning at the most interesting places would make them win either or even make them enter top 10. Nobody said that but I wanted to point it out.
We can argue that Sweden wouldn't have win 2015 if they sang in 2 because they were having two big competitors. But for Portugal 2017 I do think that he would have won wherever he was cause it was a landslide.

I really want to point out that good songs that really have a chance at victory are put in good places which reinforces the fact that the running order matters and I'm totally fine with it, nobody enters the contest with the exact same chances and if that makes a better contest in term of producing i'm all aboard.