Let's be honest, as a french i'm quite worried now for our result seeing how much we dropped in the betting odds. I've even seen one website putting us behind countries like Belgium, Romania or Germany in the odds (absolutely nothing against these countries of course they're not considered by the fandom as much better as France). I don't get why because for me the performance is really well done, visually stunning and one of the best of the season, the song really stands out by his own, the chorus is striking and you have this great moment with the shot on the LED Floor and where the flame explodes.
I dont wan't to believe people are downgrading us in the betting odds only because of the camera shots.
Maybe if we had choosed a better clip during the 1st semi-final, it would not be as terrible i dont know.
The only reason thereto are the semis that many people (outside the bubble) watched, heard several songs they liked for the first time and they are now inflating their streams on YT and other SM.
E.g. Ukraine's semi 1 performance is now at almost 4 million views, whereas another contender, Greek entry is at 1.2 million.
The Big5 favorites Mahmood and Blanco have cca 900 000 streams for semi 1 performance, and they are trending only in Italy meaning domestic audience only is watching this performance.
Therefore Italy dropped in odds.
Then from semi 2 we have Konstrakta from Serbia who was no fav, yet she has 2 million views in less than 24 hrs. The favourite Sweden has LESS THAN 400 000.
Whereas another Big5 contender Spain, like Italy, has 1.2 million. However these are the numbers of domestic audience as she's not trending nowhere but Spain.
Therefore, Spain and Sweden have negative trends in the odds as of today.
It is therefore the advantage of performing in the semis enabling these countries to capture the interest of the audience before Grand Final and then the bookies adjust the odds.
Things will change when people actually see France performing on Saturday, plus the performance is memorable and different from all others coming in the row of 25 countries.
So no worries with the bookies.
And don't make comparisons with last year. Maneskin had been no. 1. with the bookies from their first rehersal and that hadn't changed till the Grand Final. But that was Maneskin. They were unique in all senses and nobody could have competed with them. They had much more behind them to offer than an ESC entry or a typical ESC artist. What was easy to recognize by all people (except for the most of the bubble
).
This year the odds of the bookies aren't that reliable.