As I have said before, ESC community is just a fraction of the public vote. What's popular with the fandom may not be a good representation of the general public vote. It can give you somewhat an indication, but it won't matter much. At the end of the day, who gives the most memorable performance of the night will emerge victorious. Haven't we all learnt about this when your hot favourites crash and burn and some entries will emerge out of nowhere to steal the slots.
Learn to take the pre-rehearsals hype and rating with a pinch of salt. I seriously can't wait to see who are going to crash and who are going to surprise us.