My guess is there will actually be a big discrepancy between the jury and the televote, with the televote winner getting a considerable advantage because of the % system. Even if some country wins all the juries, it only gets 12/58= 20,7% of all the available jurypoints. With the televote points, that limit is 100%. Of course neither limit will be reached, but I still expect about 3-4 huge televote favourites together getting around 30% of the available telepoints, which probably won't be the case with the juries, whose points will get a more even distribution.
All this to say - I think the televote winner is in a good position to win it alltogether, and I think that that will be either Lithuania, Iceland or Russia.