Countries are listed in the order they appear in the semis. (aside from the non-qualifiers)
Non-Qualifiers: Australia, Belarus, Ireland, North Macedonia, Croatia, Cyprus, Slovenia (in that order)
Non-qualifiers: Albania, Denmark, Austria, Portugal, Armenia, Estonia, Moldova, Finland (in that order)
Being considered the weaker semi, I could see San Marino slipping through. This semi is definitely the harder one to predict. I feel like Czech Republic could be in trouble...but I still think they'll qualify.
There is a slight chance that or might qualify instead of (or if it will go freaky freaky freaky they might qualify instead of a fan favorite like or and seeing who everyone love Senhit I have a hunch we will might be freaking it out just like this)
Semi final 2:
But I think that if it was the real Eurovision with everyone at home voting and a real jury then could really have a chance qualifying but it has 0 chances qualifying here. I think that and will be a 'shocking' NQ anyhow.
I feel like it's very tough to predict this, because I don't know if other juries have been acting as juries, that is if they have been ranking based on actual perceived quality instead of debased entertainment. Normally I would just be absolutely sure that Norway would be through, but right now that's not a given. Or in semi 2 I would guess that Poland would normally qualify based on a decent jury return and enough diaspora to give them a decent televote score as well, but those factors are gone.
No real surprises here, although I think in the actual contest that at least one of would have been replaced with
I think there would have been some big discrepancies between the ESCUnited vote and the actual ESC vote. I would predict qualifying over and the trash that is so beloved here for reasons unbeknownst to myself,