Eurovision 2014 - Jury SHAME-O-METER

[Viiiik]

I analyzed the jury votes, and I made some calculation. I used standard deviation, and made all calculations in Excel. I show that in an example.

United Kingdom jury votes to San Marino

Jury A = 21 (place)
Jury B = 20
Jury C = 21
Jury D = 22
Jury E = 2

I calculated the average: 17,2 (AVG)

Then I work with this formula:

X = ((A-AVG)^2+(B-AVG)^2+(C-AVG)^2+(D-AVG)^2+(E-AVG)^2)/5 = 58,16

I took the root square of X and I got 7,62627. I got all these X, and I calculated an average. This average is the final result of the country. The smaller result (the smaller difference between the juries votes), the bigger shame. I made 5 groups.

GROUP 1 - YES! You are the right juries for this show!

Macedonia - 5,35
Austria - 4,95
Hungary - 4,87
Ireland - 4,87
UK - 4,66
Slovenia - 4,45
Malta - 4,42​

GROUP 2 - Normal votes, good juries.

Israel - 4,27
Sweden - 4,25
Switzerland - 4,21
San Marino - 4,18
Italy - 4,13
Albania - 4,12
Lithuania - 4,11
France - 4,06
Romania - 4,01
Denmark - 3,96
Spain - 3,9
Finland - 3,89
Norway - 3,87
Estonia - 3,84​

GROUP 3 - Acceptable votes, but could be better. Next time you should choose some new member for the jury.

Moldova - 3,7
Poland - 3,68
Greece - 3,63
Belgium - 3,51​

GROUP 4 - Bad voting. Some bloc votes, or copies from each other. Thanks, but we don't need these kind of juries.

Portugal - 3,36
Russia - 3,14
Latvia - 3,11
Iceland - 2,96
Ukraine - 2,94
Armenia - 2,8
Germany - 2,78
The Netherlands - 2,57​

GROUP 5 - SHAME! This is a song contest, not let's-give-five-similar-place contest. Your votes are the worst, and EBU should think about some sanctions.

Belarus - 1,59
Montenegro - 0,94
Azerbaijan - 0,87​

This calculation just shows the differencies between the juries votes. I don't want to offend countries or people on this forum, just the members of the jury. They deserve that. Their votes are bad, and they should feel bad. And I know, there are some small results in the GROUP 1 or 2 also, but I calculated an average. And another thing: In this calculation I did not care, that X country give Y points to Z country. It's all about the differences between their jury votes.​

 

[Andreea]

I don't need any calculation to see how subjective were UK and Ireland jurors, so unprofessional.
They should feel bad for what they have done. And I didn't check the others, but I'm sure many were cynical like those from UK.

UK jury place Romania on top in semifinal and way bottom in final. I'm not so naive to think that in two days they've change their minds and realize they hate the song. Expert jury ? oh yes, they are experts in backstage games.

 

[Quent91]

Wow, do you study maths ?

 

[Viiiik]

I don't need any calculation to see how subjective were UK and Ireland jurors, so unprofessional.
They should feel bad for what they have done. And I didn't check the others, but I'm sure many were cynical like those from UK.

UK jury place Romania on top in semifinal and way bottom in final. I'm not so naive to think that in two days they've change their minds and realize they hate the song. Expert jury ? oh yes, they are experts in backstage games.

Did you read that I wrote in the end of my post? I don't think so... :?

 

[Viiiik]

Wow, do you study maths ?

No, I'm just curious.

 

[LalehForWD]

Why 58,16?

 

[Viiiik]

Why 58,16?

Because of math, that's why.

In this example, I got this.

X = ((21-17,2)^2)+(20-17,2)^2+(21-17,2)^2+(22-17,2)^2+(2-17,2)^2)/5
X = (14,44+7,84+14,44+23,04+231,04)/5
X = 290,8/5
X = 58,16

SQUARE ROOT 58,16 = 7,62627

 

[LalehForWD]

Right

 

[EscGeek]

You're a math genius!

 

[Venage]

Wow, do you study maths ?

It's just the formula for the standard deviation. You should've studied that in school

 

[Quent91]

It's just the formula for the standard deviation. You should've studied that in school

I'm a dicк in maths. I finished school with 50,5% in maths, just enough to pass

 

[ParadiseES]

Then I work with this formula:

X = ((A-AVG)^2+(B-AVG)^2+(C-AVG)^2+(D-AVG)^2+(E-AVG)^2)/5 = 58,16

​

Yeah, obvious

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Viiik I love your calculation.

Azerbaijan and Armenia should be banned!

 

[kippesoep]

Nice work. I was playing with this idea myself, but ultimately was too lazy

It would also be interesting to see how much jurors changed their mind from the semi's to the final.

Some suspicious movements from the first semi-final would be:

Albania: Sweden +3
Armenia: Ukraine -3, Russia +3
Hungary: Russia -4
Moldova: Russia -3, Montenegro -4, Hungary +3
Montenegro: Azerbaijan -5, Russia -4, Hungary +5, San Marino +6, Iceland +3
Russia: Netherlands +3, Iceland +3
San Marino: Netherlands -5, Armenia -3, Azerbaijan +4, Sweden +5
Spain: Montenegro -3, Iceland +3
Netherlands: Hungary -3, Montenegro +3
Ukraine: Netherlands -3, Iceland -5, Azerbaijan +3, Russia +4

Though some of those could be because of the difference in numbers between the final and semi-final where just some songs of the big 5 and other semi finals got put in between for individual jurors, where the jurors didn't really change their mind.

 

[gustav]

A too high standard deviation isn't a good thing either, though. After all if their opinion diverges that much (even more than that of the televoters), than what's the point of having juries altogether?

 

[kippesoep]

A too high standard deviation isn't a good thing either, though. After all if their opinion diverges that much (even more than that of the televoters), than what's the point of having juries altogether?

Very true, at some point it becomes just random votes and above even that it becomes probable collusion again.

 

[Viiiik]

A too high standard deviation isn't a good thing either, though. After all if their opinion diverges that much (even more than that of the televoters), than what's the point of having juries altogether?

I think Macedonia's result isn't too high also. If I calculate a result 7-8 or higher, that would be too high.

 

[kippesoep]

I think Macedonia's result isn't too high also. If I calculate a result 7-8 or higher, that would be too high.

What's too high? I think for instance in the case of Macedonia with a std dev of 5.35 there is a 68% probability of being within 10.7 places and even a 27% probability of it being within 10.7 and 21.4 places. This seems a bit too random for my taste... how did you quantify "too high"?

 

[gustav]

I think Macedonia's result isn't too high also. If I calculate a result 7-8 or higher, that would be too high.

From some quick back-of-the-envelope calculation a result higher than 6,5 would mean that the results are wider apart than what you would expect from a random order. This means that in this case the juries would make a conscious decisson to set the rankings as far apart as possible.

 

[Viiiik]

What's too high? I think for instance in the case of Macedonia with a std dev of 5.35 there is a 68% probability of being within 10.7 places and even a 27% probability of it being within 10.7 and 21.4 places. This seems a bit too random for my taste... how did you quantify "too high"?

It's just my experience, as I calculated so much. The highest result you can reach for one country is 12,24 (26,1,1,1,26). I can't tell you an exact avg number, where the jury votes become too random, but I think it's about 7-8.