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ESC 2014 Semi-Finals Allocation & Running Order

Mrm

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hahahahaha Italy can't vote Monetta, again! :D
 

greece

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Screenshot%202014-01-20%2015.20.35.jpg

So we are in second semi again!It is OK semi...not easy but not bad...

Also all the best to :sm: but I dont think that in this semi they can pass...
 

Yamarus

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Yayyyy I'll be able to vote for Valentina!!! (if I like her song)
 

ParadiseES

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My view:

SEMIFINAL 1
Similar to the same semi last year. Not only too many ex-soviets here, but they're usually the strongest ones: Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia. Then it's Moldova too. I don't count the Baltics here, since they usually don't receive that much from these countries, though they do give high points, especially to Russia.

Sweden and Iceland have been lucky too since they have Denmark voting here and 2/3 Baltics (good for them too).
Montenegro and, especially, Albania are the unlucky ones. I don't put San Marino here cause I think their chances are really hard no matter the countries they have voting for them.

So former USSR will keep at least half of the qualifying spots (except there is a disaster in their selections, unlikely) + two places for the North, then we'd have 2-3 free spots for the rest. I think Portugal (because of the draw) and Netherlands (likely to have a strong act again) have the most chances.

But there's another thing..... The most likely qualifiers (except Ukraine and Moldova) are in the first half. Worsde draw and all together. I wonder if they could manage each other and make some of them stay in the semi. I hope, because I want an unpredictable semi! :)
 

A-lister

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:lol:

Do people still believe this draw is fair and random? I mean last year almost all ex-Yu countries ended up in one semi (and failed to qualify), this year almost all ex-USSR countries end up in one semi...

How is it even possible that with a pot system like the current one that all from one pot end up in the same semi? xshrug
 

ParadiseES

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SEMIFINAL 2

This is gonna be much more close and exciting. The blocks are quite small here and there are only 15 countries. No 100% certain qualifiers, although Greece seems to be near. Poland has been quite lucky despite being drawn in the first half, as well as Lithuania. Slovenia and FYR Macedonia also seem to have more chances in this semi. The same goes for Switzerland and Austria.

On the other hand, Georgia and Belarus lost their block here and will not have any advantage. This semi looks a bit worse for Norway and Finland too. Similar case for Romania.

However, everything can happen and I think everything will depend just on the songs and the performances. Except for Greece, which has 90% chances to qualify, anyone can qualify if they send a decent song and also anyone can flop. Let's hope we have some surprises here :)
 

ParadiseES

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How is it even possible that with a pot system like the current one that all from one pot end up in the same semi? xshrug

Soviet pot: Ukraine, Russia and Azerbaijan to semi 1. Belarus and Georgia to semi 2.
But Moldova and Armenia were in different pots because of kinda different voting patterns, as well as the Baltic countries.

So not all the countries from the same pot ended up in the same semi.
 

eerik

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Here we go again with this nonsense...


its-a-conspiracy.jpg
 

Franco

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Poor Valentina! All alone in semi 1. xcry1
I hope that she can get some support from Portugal and Spain, at least.

As for Italy, lots of bordering countries to get its votes, but the 12 will most surely go to Romania.

And Ireland will most surely get the 12 from UK.

Switzerland and Austria have good chances, as they may swap each other's votes and get some from Italy and Germany, too.

Maybe Malta can substitute Cyprus in the block with Greece?
 

Leydan

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And Ireland will most surely get the 12 from UK.

We only gave them 6 last year. Last time we gave them 12 in the semi's was 2005. They will get good points from us though.
Countries that will definitely get points of the UK: :lt: :pl: :ie: :mt: :gr: :ch:
Countries who might get votes off us: :at: :no:
 

Franco

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Scandinavia has been split nearly in half:
Sweden, Denmark and Island in semi 1
Norway and Finland in semi 2.

It could have been worse. Given that Sweden and Norway were to be placed in different semis, one of them could have ended alone. Instead, now they all have some support to count on.
 

GRE

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Last year ex-ussr countries made 6/6 in the First Semi.
Do you believe that they can do 7/7 this year ?
 

eerik

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Last year ex-ussr countries made 6/6 in the First Semi.
Do you believe that they can do 7/7 this year ?

No, Latvia is in the first semi.
 

Leydan

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Scandinavia has been split nearly in half:
Sweden, Denmark and Island in semi 1
Norway and Finland in semi 2.

It could have been worse. Given that Sweden and Norway were to be placed in different semis, one of them could have ended alone. Instead, now they all have some support to count on.

Don't forget Estonia and Latvia in SF1, they tend to be a bit friendly with Scandinavian countries. Especially Estonia. It will be Norway and Finland with the biggest issues in qualifying. Especially with Norway in the first half.
 
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