My view:
SEMIFINAL 1
Similar to the same semi last year. Not only too many ex-soviets here, but they're usually the strongest ones: Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia. Then it's Moldova too. I don't count the Baltics here, since they usually don't receive that much from these countries, though they do give high points, especially to Russia.
Sweden and Iceland have been lucky too since they have Denmark voting here and 2/3 Baltics (good for them too).
Montenegro and, especially, Albania are the unlucky ones. I don't put San Marino here cause I think their chances are really hard no matter the countries they have voting for them.
So former USSR will keep at least half of the qualifying spots (except there is a disaster in their selections, unlikely) + two places for the North, then we'd have 2-3 free spots for the rest. I think Portugal (because of the draw) and Netherlands (likely to have a strong act again) have the most chances.
But there's another thing..... The most likely qualifiers (except Ukraine and Moldova) are in the first half. Worsde draw and all together. I wonder if they could manage each other and make some of them stay in the semi. I hope, because I want an unpredictable semi!