Emmelie or Conchita?

[Mlyn]

Because too much of you is her?

 

[Mickey]

I think it would have been very close, but Conchita would have just pipped Emmelie to the win.

There's no way Conchita could have beaten Loreen, though. Loreen already overcame a mainstream press gimmick entry in the form the Russian Grannies. She could beat another. Maybe that's a little harsh on Conchita, but like the grannies, her face was in every newspaper article prior to the show. Both the Babushki and Conchita had a big advantage in that people would have been looking forward to seeing them perform.

The change in voting procedure between the two years makes very little difference to Conchita. Under 2012 rules, she would have got only an extra 8 points. 298/36=8.28 points per country for her. Loreen got 372/41=9.07.

 

[Mlyn]

The 2012 rules would have meant 313 points for Conchita. And let's not forget that Conchita's stronghold was the televote, whereas Loreen's fortitude came from the combined vote. She was lower with the televote as well as the jury vote compared to the outcome.

The reason for Conchita's mediocre jury scores lies within several countries which threw her completely under the bus, still she finished Top 3 in the televote or even won it, like in Germany. Loreen had not a single jury trying to **** with her.

On televotes alone Conchita's average outdoes Loreen's. It's in a thread I posted here a couple of months ago.

 

[Mickey]

The 2012 rules would have meant 313 points for Conchita. And let's not forget that Conchita's stronghold was the televote, whereas Loreen's fortitude came from the combined vote. She was lower with the televote as well as the jury vote compared to the outcome.

The reason for Conchita's mediocre jury scores lies within several countries which threw her completely under the bus, still she finished Top 3 in the televote or even won it, like in Germany. Loreen had not a single jury trying to **** with her.

On televotes alone Conchita's average outdoes Loreen's. It's in a thread I posted here a couple of months ago.

I've had a look at your results and I'm sorry, but your methodology is wrong. You've used the rankings of each juror (with 11th signifying anything below tenth) and come up with an average juror ranking, which you then add to the televote rank.

In reality, the 2012 system (rules on page 5 here) involved each juror scoring the songs Eurovision style 1-12. They add those up and the top ten songs get Eurovision style points 1-12 as their jury points. These are then added to the 1-12 points given for the televote. Whoever gets the most points comes top with the country.

These two methods are not the same. I did the 2012-style scores a while back and got 298 for Conchita.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about Conchita's jury vote. Loreen's jury split is better than hers. If we're not combining it with a televote, it doesn't matter whether anything below 10th is placed 11th or 26th.

 

[Mlyn]

My methodology does exactly that. But you can still try to convince a mathematician otherwise of course.

Still, 11th signifies nil point and has the same impact like 25th.

But whatever your difference is to mine, Conchita Wurst still won more resounding over the televote, whereas Loreen won more strongly over the combined vote. She didn't get her 372 points neither in the televote nor the jury vote. I think you should at least agree on that since your combined score for Conchita Wurst is also lower than the official televote results. And the reason for that is, that she got boycotted by several juries but not by a single audience. With a handicap like this it's always easy to claim how much brighter Loreen might have shone versus Conchita in a head to head competition, which she still might of course, but would she still have been able to pull the victory of the televote, which was already a virtual tie with Russia?

Acts influence each other a lot. In a year like 2008 with strong divas with massive hits, they levelled each other out for at least so much, a dull song like Believe could win. Even more so in 2011 where the 12 points went all over the scoreboard, because there were at least 20 strong entries, which ended up with a frustrating compromise winner. So a great year ended bitterly.

So, in 2012 neither Loreen or Conchita might have won in a head to head, but the Russian grannies or the Serbian mourning ballad.

 

[Mickey]

My methodology does exactly that. But you can still try to convince a mathematician otherwise of course.

Still, 11th signifies nil point and has the same impact like 25th.

I'm not worried about the 11th places. The problem is that, with Eurovision scoring, the difference between first and second is bigger than, say, fifth and sixth. I have a maths degree by the way.

But whatever your difference is to mine, Conchita Wurst still won more resounding over the televote, whereas Loreen won more strongly over the combined vote. She didn't get her 372 points neither in the televote nor the jury vote. I think you should at least agree on that since your combined score for Conchita Wurst is also lower than the official televote results. And the reason for that is, that she got boycotted by several juries but not by a single audience. With a handicap like this it's always easy to claim how much brighter Loreen might have shone versus Conchita in a head to head competition, which she still might of course, but would she still have been able to pull the victory of the televote, which was already a virtual tie with Russia?

Acts influence each other a lot. In a year like 2008 with strong divas with massive hits, they levelled each other out for at least so much, a dull song like Believe could win. Even more so in 2011 where the 12 points went all over the scoreboard, because there were at least 20 strong entries, which ended up with a frustrating compromise winner. So a great year ended bitterly.

So, in 2012 neither Loreen or Conchita might have won in a head to head, but the Russian grannies or the Serbian mourning ballad.

Obviously, this is all just speculation. We can't prove anything for certain. You're right, Loreen did well by combining big scores in both the jury and televote. That's clear to see.

I would still argue though, if you dropped Conchita into 2012, her and the grannies would have been more likely to cancel each other out than anyone.

I also don't see how certain juries disliking Conchita is a phenomenon specific to 2014. I reckon her jury marks would have been similar any other year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Azerbaijan marked Loreen last in their 2012 jury vote.

 

[Mlyn]

I'm not worried about the 11th places. The problem is that, with Eurovision scoring, the difference between first and second is bigger than, say, fifth and sixth. I have a maths degree by the way.

That's awesome, so we have something in common


Well indeed, I didn't know that jurors had to rank according to douze points before 2013, just their Top 10. If it is so, then the old system is almost as flawed as the new one, and my methodology is just perfect. But the gap between 1st, 2nd and 3rd is the only difference to my method and I don't expect a a major shift in points. Especially when I look at Switzerland, I doubt they would have gotten even less points under the old system with their good televote results and that Azerbaijan would have so close to Top 10.

Ranking from 1 to 25 makes even less sense, since it empowers the judget to vote against someone, which is a very negative approach in methodology I dont like to see in Eurovision. The art of combination is often poorly carried out and results in brainfarts.

Obviously, this is all just speculation. We can't prove anything for certain. You're right, Loreen did well by combining big scores in both the jury and televote. That's clear to see.

I would still argue though, if you dropped Conchita into 2012, her and the grannies would have been more likely to cancel each other out than anyone.

I also don't see how certain juries disliking Conchita is a phenomenon specific to 2014. I reckon her jury marks would have been similar any other year. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Azerbaijan marked Loreen last in their 2012 jury vote.

I guess Conchita would have had the LGBT support in 2012 already, but I doubt Azerbaijan would have embraced her like Denmark did. Of course Euphoria was anthemic, daring and commercially successful, whereas Conchita sold less than the Common Linnets this year. But Conchita is very polarising and she conveys a strong message. Maybe Thats What I Am would have been too cheesy to win, but I wouldnt underestimate RLAP at all. Her semifinal result was already a new record in terms of average score (but the competition was a soft one too) and her televote results really astounding. Loreen didnt get much more points from 42 countries two years ago from the televoters, hence the televoter's average was even lower.

I can easily imagine Western Europe totally torn in their preference between Conchita and Loreen and the Babushkis snatching victory.

Some juries wouldn't have had more love for an act like Conchita previously, but the impact would have been less significant with the old rules.

btw. I don't see how the Azerbaijani jury could have killed Euphoria in 2012, because Sweden received 7 points from which is a decent result, considering that Russia and Turkey would have won the televote anyways and the 12 and 10 points were already locked. So, for 7 points, Sweden most likely received points from the Azeri televote and jury. If Sweden was ranked 3rd or 4th in the televote and the jury had them outside their top 10, it's unlikely they still would have gotten 7 points. Conchita would have gotten 5 points from Aze this year under the old rules, which is 2 points less for being outside juries' Top 10.

 

[aletem]

Well given the huge publicity by the media, fangirling, the whole act that Tom/Conchita represents, Conchita would have won. Now, I really like and enjoy "Only teardrops", whereas I don't like "Rise like a peni...phoenix".

 

[IncognitoGH]

Emmelie. When she speaks Danish. Her accent. *remoulade*