Crunching the numbers

[Mlyn]

Austria won with a healthy margin of 52 points over Netherlands. But there's a striking fact behind this margin - Eastern European televoters helped Conchita Wurst win Eurovision!


In Western Europe it was almost a dead race between Netherlands and Austria, they received there 12's and 10's from almost every country. The Baltic countries even gave Netherlands the edge to win!

But the Baltic momentum was annulled by the rest of Eastern Europe. Make no mistake, juries of Eastern Europe wanted to kill Netherlands and Austria alike, also Sweden. But televoters in Eastern Europe fell so much more for Conchita Wurst than for the Common Linnets, that those combined points added up to more than the actual margin of victory.

Take away those numbers from former SSR, Israel and Balkan:

** AT NL
AL 5 0
MN 2 0
MD 7 0
AZ 1 0
GE 10 0
UA 8 0
RU 5 3
IL 12 0
MT 10 0
MK 3 7

This means an advantage of 53 points for Austria over Netherlands. Macedonia may have awarded less points to Austria, but the televoters put them ahead of Netherlands, so that at least some combined points came into the addition.



Next up: Hungary's totally random results according to whatever voting system is in place......

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Hmm, does not really matter to me.

 

[Mlyn]

That would have been the final result under the most reasonable system that was in place from 2009 to 2012.......

As you can see, Austria gets now points from every country, since jurors couldn't put it dead last and sink it anymore.

Also Poland, Russia and Switzerland get a boost, all of them doing much better in the televoting than with the juries.

Another big winner is Azerbaijan, which was a jury favourite, but went last with the televoting.

Spain is a big loser, since they couldn't sneak in the Top 10 anymore by often just missing out of the Top 10 of either judges or jurors. The Big 5 are pretty much at the bottom again.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I prefer the old system, I don't like the fact that jurors kind of kills a song when they put it dead last. Instead they should vote for what they like, just like televoters do.

 

[Salmon]

Well... the low Dutch result turnout in the Eastern European countries does not surprise me at all. Country music simply doesn't work there

 

[Mlyn]

Fun fact of the day: Austria's average score in the 2nd semifinal is the best ever in Eurovision history. Under the current voting system as well as under the old one.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

What? But what about Alexander Rybak? He got 201 points in his semi-final

 

[Mlyn]

Conchita Wurst got an average rank in her semi of 2.13 which is higher than Aleksandar Rybak's average rank of 2.37.

Of course, CW's semi was smaller with 15 competitors compared to Rybak's with 19.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

That is right.

What was the semi average for Loreen? and Dima Bilan?

 

[Mlyn]

Loreen had an average of 2.75 and Dima Bilan of 4.55.

 

[Pawhlen]

That would have been the final result under the most reasonable system that was in place from 2009 to 2012.......

As you can see, Austria gets now points from every country, since jurors couldn't put it dead last and sink it anymore.

Also Poland, Russia and Switzerland get a boost, all of them doing much better in the televoting than with the juries.

Another big winner is Azerbaijan, which was a jury favourite, but went last with the televoting.

Spain is a big loser, since they couldn't sneak in the Top 10 anymore by often just missing out of the Top 10 of either judges or jurors. The Big 5 are pretty much at the bottom again.

When I counted the same way I got this result:

01. 293
02. 235
03. 215
04. 176
05. 126
06. 109
07. 103
08. 103
09. 82
10. 77
11. 65
12. 60
13. 55
14. 54
15. 52
16. 51
17. 51
18. 44
19. 42
20. 40
21. 34
22. 33
23. 28
24. 9
25. 8
26. 1

 

[Mlyn]

And why do you think you counted the same way?

 

[Pawhlen]

And why do you think you counted the same way?

How did you do? You only have access to the jury votes from and , and the televotes from

I simple combined the top 10:s in every country

 

[Mlyn]

We have access to every jury and every televote. So, I weighed every other song outside any Top 10 with 11, to outdo the negative voting effects and to enable average results.

For example Hungary:

 

[vatroslav_cro]

..............

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Oh, okay

A bit off-topic: Dima Bilan is never going to be a winner in my eyes, he only ended up as 3rd in his semi-final

 

[Pawhlen]

Oh, okay

A bit off-topic: Dima Bilan is never going to be a winner in my eyes, he only ended up as 3rd in his semi-final

Azerbaijan didn´t won their semi-final either back in 2011

 

[Mlyn]

Yeah, 2008 and 2011 were pretty close and the winners were not really popular..... Greece had an astounding score in the Semifinal in 2008, but somehow faltered in the Grand Final

 

[Pawhlen]

Yeah, 2008 and 2011 were pretty close and the winners were not really popular..... Greece had an astounding score in the Semifinal in 2008, but somehow faltered in the Grand Final

I remember that some rumors about Russia buying votes that year was in circle, but it was no real evidence that it had occured, but you never know with those countries like Russia and Azerbaijan

 

[FilipFromSweden]

To me Russia in 2008 is not a winner, 3rd in a semi-final and so much block voting. Kalomoira was the true winner, she had an outstanding song that I still love today and she won her semi-final.

Azerbaijan did not win it's semi-final but it was only 10 points away from doing so (I think) and even though I think it is one of the worst winners ever I think it was '' okay '' because it at least ended up 2nd in it's semi-final.