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Betting Odds for ESC 2011

JackBauer

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Ireland is the only song of paddy's odds top ten who has absolutely no chance of being close to top 5 with the jury.


I really think Ireland will join Greece & Georgia in the botton of the jury voting so i'not worried about them



Verka was almpost good and she couldn't do it and she was from a country a lot of people tend to vote for if their entry is good.Besides, should we have 50/50 in 2007 i'm sure she would have barely been in top 5...
 

MyHeartIsYours

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^ Ireland is the second favourite not only on Paddy Power but also every other betting company including Betfair ;).

Ireland is almost guaranteed 12 points at least from United Kingdom if they qualify and whilst they'll pick up mostly televotes, I think the Juries will also like them and I can see them getting over 100 points easily!
 

QwaarJet

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^ Ireland is the second favourite not only on Paddy Power but also every other betting company including Betfair ;).

Ireland is almost guaranteed 12 points at least from United Kingdom if they qualify and whilst they'll pick up mostly televotes, I think the Juries will also like them and I can see them getting over 100 points easily!
100 points? Oh my god I nearly fell off my chair when I read that. I actually think you may be right, but I hope they get thrown out in the semis. I think either they come close to winning the whole thing or they go out in the semis. No in-between.
 

Earthland

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When I try to predict the winner, I imagine different songs coming onto the stage again after the results are published. France didn't suit there at all, UK felt strange and Sweden was a good joke... but Estonia, mm....
 

dogmeat

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Ireland is most unpredictable entry. It's predicted 2nd most likely to win, but only 5th most likely to come top4 and 8th to come top10.

Betfair semifinal 2 qualifiers odds:
:ba: 1.05
:dk: 1.08
:ie: 1.20
:ro: 1.23
:ee: 1.27
:at: 1.33
:se: 1.36
:ua: 1.45
:sl: 1.59
:md: 1.84
:lv: 2.16
:bg: 2.34
:il: 2.82
:cy: 3.0
:sk: 4.6
:nl: 4.9
:by: 5.8
:be: 6.8
:mk: 12.5
 

MyHeartIsYours

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Betfair odds 12/05/11


GrandFinal (Winner)

1. :fr: France - 2.98

2. :ie: Ireland - 7

3. :az: Azerbaijan - 13

4. :uk: United Kingdom - 13.5

5. :ba: Bosnia and Herzegovina - 18

6. :ee: Estonia - 20

7. :hu: Hungary - 24

8. :de: Germany - 25

9. :fi: Finland - 27

10. :dk: Denmark - 27

11. :se: Sweden - 28

12. :at: Austria - 50

13. :ru: Russia - 80

14. :ge: Georgia - 90

15. :sl: Slovenia - 150

16. :is: Iceland - 160

17. :gr: Greece - 170

18. :it: Italy - 180

19. :ua: Ukraine - 190

20. :rs: Serbia - 200


SemiFinal Two (Winner)

1. :ba: Bosnia and Herzegovina - 3.9

2. :dk: Denmark - 5.2

3. :ie: Ireland - 6

4. :ee: Estonia - 6

5. :se: Sweden - 14.5

6. :at: Austria - 20

7. :ro: Romania - 26

8. :sl: Slovenia - 29

9. :ua: Ukraine - 36

10. :md: Moldova - 44

11. :lv: Latvia - 80

12. :bg: Bulgaria - 130

13. :il: Israel - 180

14. :sk: Slovakia - 190

15. :be: Belgium - 200

16. :cy: Cyprus - 230

17. :bg: Belarus - 240

18. :nl: Netherlands - 280

19. :mk: Macedonia - 310


Other Odds

Finishing positions:
France - 1st to 2nd (1.7), 3rd to 4th (2.1) and 5th or lower (2.34).
Germany - 11th or lower (1.61), 6th to 10th (2.14) and 1st to 5th (2.22).
United Kingdom - 7th or lower (1.31), 4th to 6th (2.8) and 1st to 3rd (3).

Top Big 5:
France (1.52), United Kingdom (3.95), Germany (5.7), Italy (23) and Spain (40).

Head to heads:
France (1.2) vs Germany (2.56).
France (1.35) vs United Kingdom (2.58).
United Kingdom (1.79) vs Germany (2.1).
United Kingdom (1.83) vs Ireland (1.85).
Russia (1.01) vs Ukraine (2).

Number of douze points:
France - Under 8 (1.01), 8 (1.1) and Over 8 (1.51).
United Kingdom - Under 3 (1.91), Over 3 (2.26) and 3 (2.42).

Nul points:
No (1.19) and Yes (5.8).

Origin of winner:
B5 (1.81), SF2 (3.1) and SF1 (3.15).

United Kingdom total points:
Over 150 (2.08), Under 125 (2.14) and 125 to 150 (2.24).

Winner from SemiFinals:
No (1.96) and Yes (1.71).

Winner without France:
Ireland (4.6), Azerbaijan (5.3), United Kingdom (8.2), Estonia (10) and Denmark (12).

Winning points:
Under 265 (2.22), Over 275 (2.36) and 265 to 275 (2.38).
 

MyHeartIsYours

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It's funny to see how popular Ireland have gotten, but Im really glad about that!! :D They've managed popularity just in time (hopefully ;)). Also it's interesting how after United Kingdom there is a quite a large gap and then again after Sweden there is a massive gap! The winning odds predict a French runaway but when you look at the other odds, it's not going to be quite so runaway for anybody!
 

MyHeartIsYours

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Update after SemiFinal!! :D

PaddyPower odds 12/05/11


GrandFinal (Winner)

1. :fr: France - 2.88

2. :ie: Ireland - 3.5

3. :uk: United Kingdom - 11

4. :az: Azerbaijan - 13

5. :dk: Denmark - 13
 

QwaarJet

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Can't believe how high Denmark are. Jedward's odds defy belief but I don't think they'll translate into anything on the night. What are Hungary's odds? That might be worth a punt if you were a betting person.
 

AronS

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Are there any bookmakers outside of the UK? Or is it primarily a UK thing? I'd be interested to know Jedwards odds without the UK-bias skew.
 

grazy2266

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I'm surprised that Ireland is performing better in the odds, I can see them do fairly well tonight, wouldn't be at all surprised to see them in the top10.

Last week Jedward was at 27/1, the booking wont like that if they bag the win tonight. France still top fave, the odds are so popular its not even work putting money on them, the return is so slow.
 

KevinA1976

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Are Irelands odds dellusional Jedward fans in the UK/Ireland? Or is something going on here. I just has a bet on Azerbaijan on Betafir and Ireland are 2nd favourites there too. hmm
 

MyHeartIsYours

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I think the bookmakers have switched their money last minute from Blue to Jedward, personally I think it's silly of them because whilst Jedward will most likely do very well, do they have more chance of winning than Ell and Nikki or Blue?? Imo they dont.
 

AronS

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I personally think that Irelands odds are GREATLY skewed by UK-bet bias. Odds are a by product of how people are betting - so, essentially, people are betting more and more for Ireland. However, as far as I'm aware, many of the sites citing odds (I know Betfair is different but I'm sure the demographic is high UK?) are UK sites - so naturally, as one of the most recognisible acts within the UK, many bets are going to be for Jedward. I'm quite confident that whilst Lipstick is a catchy song, the cross-European appeal will not be there and these odds will be shown to be rather distorted.

Granted, Frances odds would appear to be sound - although, personally, I don't like the French entry!
 
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