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Betting Odds 2020

Nemo89

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February 13, 2020
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Because Sweden has some amazing entries in Mefest.
Italy is just overrated as always!
My love, Italy has 34 "Top 10" out of 45 participations. If you calculate our absences, the lack of alliances, our not conforming to the English language, not conforming to the ESC sounds, the lack of interest of Rai to host the competition, the thefts suffered and the fact that we are among the countries that created the music you know ... are we overrated? I would say that the right terms are "envied", "feared", "snubbed" and "undervalued". And meanwhile ... after all the "It's 0 for me", "It sucks", "fUi rumore” and various offenses ... we are still sixth in the betting odds. Can you tell me where the song from Greece is? And tell me ... does it have the green dot like "Fai rumore"? Anyone can win for me, but the more you denigrate Italy and I ... I enjoy! xviolinxbeach:lol:
 

Mainshow

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Can you guys please stop "attacking" each other's countries?

Italy has been underrated for years now (minus 2011, 2012). One might not like its entries (fair enough) but it's the only country ALWAYS bringing authentic and classy entries showcasing identity, artistry, the beauty of Italian language, music and culture.
Italy puts us all to shame. It clearly plays in another league than all the countries soaking in Swedish, Swiss and Azerbaijani rejects or getting the Nightmare Team involved.
 

Zonne147

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March 6, 2019
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My like to @Citelis post was about the statement about MF, I don't agree about Italy

Certainly not my favorite ESC country but I think it's pretty fair the early high position on the betting odds since they have been doing really well (deservingly Imo) in the contest
 

Uto

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People are dropping Norway, Sweden and Denmark and picking up Bulgaria and Romania today. Seems like a wise choice to me. Norway is still a hell of a ballad, but it won't have the televote appeal of Bulgaria or Romania and as such relies on the (apart from the juries) bloc votes only which just isn't enough. Swedish entry is just not strong enough as a package and Denmark will be ignored by the juries.

Only thing I find strange is why Australia is not clinging on as a dark horse. Apparently the bookies don't trust them to fix their staging.
 

4815162342

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People are dropping Norway, Sweden and Denmark and picking up Bulgaria and Romania today. Seems like a wise choice to me. Norway is still a hell of a ballad, but it won't have the televote appeal of Bulgaria or Romania and as such relies on the (apart from the juries) bloc votes only which just isn't enough. Swedish entry is just not strong enough as a package and Denmark will be ignored by the juries.

Only thing I find strange is why Australia is not clinging on as a dark horse. Apparently the bookies don't trust them to fix their staging.

I am curious how you measure televoting appeal. What makes Bulgaria and Romania have more televoting apeal than Sweden or Norway? How high do you expect each score to be?
 

AleksTheDino

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I wonder why the bookies have Bulgaria in first place and Switzerland and Romania also so high. In such a ballad-heavy year I'd expect a song that stands out to have more chances (aka Iceland or Lithuania). The ballads could cancel each other out. If there was just ONE song like for example Bulgaria's, Id understand its high chances.
Im happy it doesn't seem like this though, I very much prefer these ballads this year. Never thought I'd say that but some of them are just really good.

The only countries that could make it a more predictable eurovision are Malta and Azerbaijan, if they bring something unbelievably good. Russia, if it's anything like the songs we find on youtube, will be killed by the juries.
So it looks like eurovision will ve super unpredictable, I love this! Already see how my heart's gonna race during the voting segments this year 😍
 

njdevils94

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I don't believe in the ballads cancel each other out theory what so ever. That said Iceland and Lithuania will remain pretty high in the odds through to May I'd presume.
 

HayashiM

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I wonder why the bookies have Bulgaria in first place and Switzerland and Romania also so high. In such a ballad-heavy year I'd expect a song that stands out to have more chances (aka Iceland or Lithuania). The ballads could cancel each other out. If there was just ONE song like for example Bulgaria's, Id understand its high chances.
Im happy it doesn't seem like this though, I very much prefer these ballads this year. Never thought I'd say that but some of them are just really good.

The only countries that could make it a more predictable eurovision are Malta and Azerbaijan, if they bring something unbelievably good. Russia, if it's anything like the songs we find on youtube, will be killed by the juries.
So it looks like eurovision will ve super unpredictable, I love this! Already see how my heart's gonna race during the voting segments this year 😍

In a ballad-heavy year, some ballads are just statistically bound to end up very high :)
 

Uto

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I am curious how you measure televoting appeal. What makes Bulgaria and Romania have more televoting apeal than Sweden or Norway? How high do you expect each score to be?
There is no way to actually measure televote appeal, we are all running on assumptions that we base on a couple of imperfect metrics and our experience of what happened in the past. Bookies have some inside knowledge here and there, but that only really makes a difference in the last week. There are some ways to take a better measurement based on the amount of attention a song gets (progression of number of plays/views in other countries being the operative metric there, or at least it used to be), but ultimately that method is unreliable. Context matters a lot.

I don’t really feel like delving deeper into this than necessary. For the sake of argument it is best to just assume that my idea that Romania and Bulgaria have more televote appeal is based on the assumption that they sound more organic and therefore more authentic than Norway. Sweden I don’t see succeeding because it just won’t blow anyone away and it’s surrounded by strong entries.
 

aef

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I feel like every is called a "heavy ballad year" by some fans... I so far there is still no clear contender. It will even more depend on staging this year. I mean we probably know the staging from :is: and :lt: but if :mt: can deliver live, they are at least a clear contender for the jury vote.
 

Nemo89

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February 13, 2020
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Glad to see that Bulgaria is first on odds!
Disney's power strikes again! xqueenbitch And now the construction of the "Death Star" will start! Prophecy is about to come true!xshock1:

Joking aside, I'm happy for Bulgaria. But Citelis, don't rely on betting odds. This edition where the winner is uncertain. It will be a tough battle and a surprise winner is possiblexviolinx12pointsxshock1:xfaint xhugxcheers
 

Citelis

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Disney's power strikes again! xqueenbitch And now the construction of the "Death Star" will start! Prophecy is about to come true!xshock1:

Joking aside, I'm happy for Bulgaria. But Citelis, don't rely on betting odds. This edition where the winner is uncertain. It will be a tough battle and a surprise winner is possiblexviolinx12pointsxshock1:xfaint xhugxcheers
Odds won't tell you the winner at the moment but i prefer Bulgaria than Iceland on top.
 
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