2020 will be a dud year. Here's why.

[Fluke]

And yeah, i bet the first instinct of many here will be to "prove me wrong" or have the last laugh, but believe me, i hope as much as anyone else that it will be a great year, but recent history suggests otherwise. Besides other things with the result in general, just because the winner was radio-friendly mainstream pop, with no ethnic or individual character. The last two times that happened, 2013 and 2015, the following year was low in quality, variety and apparent ambition to win.

Though the 2011 winner was pretty dull too, 2012 turned out (by almost universal opinion) one of the strongest years ever, but that was before this trend, and things have changed since then. I really got a feeling we're getting another 2016, where i could hardly even make a top 5, because there were so many weak, generic and pointless entries and few standouts of any kind.

So why exactly does it happen? I can only guess among those that pick the entries for the national selections, the musicians who submit them, and all the voters, that the previous winner gives them the idea that only bland and generic international style entries can get a good result in the contest. You'd think enough of them should know better than to simply give up like that, but it seems to be the reason, and i got a really strong feeling it's gonna happen for 2020 again.

The good thing, on the other hand, is that both 2014 and 2016 had really great, very distinctive and original winners, perhaps because the overall song quality was so low, there wasn't much competition for them. But for the overall quality, it's not looking good, that's all.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Sure, that ESC has weak and strong years, and that it might be so that a weak one is on it's way, I don't know. It is hard to discuss this, cause it is a matter of taste more than a "general feeling", so I leave that discussion out.

Though, that you see 2014 and 2016 as the almost only original and destinctive winners among the most recent ones makes me a little surprised. Portugal 2017 is one of the surprising, original, complete out of the blue winner ever. Who would ever guess that a song like "Amar Pelos Dois" and that it competes for Portugal, the country that never makes a success in this contest, to sweep home a slamming victory, even one of the biggest wins in modern history. For me that is the most original winner ever, seeing how out of the park the song were to hits of it's time.

Surely that 2014 and 2016 were among the more original ones, I can give you that, but I must add "Toy" and Netta as well as one original winner. It is not among my top fave winnerss, but it was, especially after Portugals win the year before, something completly different and out of the park. I always applaud when a country picks the right song, with the right singer, with the right staging, at the right time, and Israel 2018 were just that.
I also think that the dutch winner not is completly mainstream either. Sure, it has an appeal and melody that would work on the charts today, but it also have that indie-flavour, that ESC has started to have in their winners lately, but in a different way like "1944" and "Amar Pelos Dois" had. It is a very calm song, almost more organic than a melodic song, which is it's strength.

Though what we can discuss is what trends we could see in 2020. I believe, looking at the 2019 top 5 or 6, that we will have a lot of indie-like ballads (Netherlands), with some hiphop-elements (Italy), with some classic dramatic eastern european drama (Russia), adding with some more Fuego pop (Switzerland) and some with a gospel kind of feel to it (Sweden). Oh and don't forget, Schlagerpop will probably strike back and have a stronger precence in the contest than the previous years (because of Norway)

 

[Mainshow]

And here we go again.... Don't you already feel exhausted and tired of downsizing and mocking "Arcade"? - We all get it.. You don't like it and wanted to see KEiiNO win.. fair enough... but stating your opinion as fact and taking it as evidence that Eurovision will go downhill, etc. has become a bit tiring.

Calling "Arcade" to not have an individual character is beyond me... Duncan wrote it himself, it's quite personal. It has more soul and emotions in it than Fuego-esque songs.

Personally, I think that 2014 had many great entries and was one of the most diverse ones in recent years. We had ethno-rap (Poland), country (The Netherlands), ethno ballads (Montenegro), powerful rock/pop anthems (Italy), cheesy and fun pop songs (Belarus), old-fashioned Eurovision-kitsch (San Marino), powerful voices (Spain), a bond song (Austria), complex quality entries (Azerbaijan), etc.... "Undo" from Sweden which has become a fan favourite.... I really think that you are driven by your frustration that your favourite hasn't won... that's all.

 

[Ana Raquel]

no uptempo bashing on this website. ballads are not necessarily more authentic than uptempos because they are ballads. both can be authentic, but both also can't.

(this is more of a general thing instead of comparing arcade x fuego)


but no 2014 bashing here. easily the best year by a landslide

 

[lavieenrose]

I will sit through a lot for an "Arcade" bashing but NOT this 2014 and 2016 slander

 

[Mainshow]

I like "Fuego", "Replay" and "She Got Me" but I consider them to be harmless bops. Great summer tracks to sing along and dance to... It was not my intention to level criticism on uptempo songs, in general... I just stated them as an example that these are, imo, the epitome of "having no individual" character... not "Arcade". The summer bops don't tell an individual story... they are basically just about dancing, having a good time, etc whilst "Arcade" has been written by the artist himself and tells an actual individual story.

"Fuego" is a well-produced pop anthem and deserved to score well (since it was accompanied by a flawless performance) but the songs themselves aren't deep or distinctive enough. Best proof: The artists gets chosen and they can pick a song which has already been produced. In my opinion, songs which have been composed having the artist in mind or being written by the artist him- or herself have a different value in terms of artistry. That's what I meant.
But it doesn't mean that lifeless pop tracks about dacning, love and sex can't be good, for example, I stan TEO's "Cheesecake" big time.. but in no universe I would call "Rise Like A Phoenix" or "Calm Before the Storm" dull and "having no individual character".

Up-tempo songs can be meaningful and individual, basically Italy's entry 2017-2019.

 

[Ana Raquel]

I disagree again. Summer bops in general can tell personal stories (though I agree this is not the intention of the three bops you mentioned - and it's not a problem!), and arcade NEVER felt personal, individual and emotional to me. >I< just see it as another generic commercial ballad (which is also not a problem!!!!!!!! but i dislike slow songs so no wonder i dislike this).

I also don't think writing your own song =/= being more authentic. And I'd rather see a song written by 3947328472398 persons as long as it is well written. Not a problem with that!!!!! There are

I say that think as "what if i was an artist?". I'd feel way more authentic singing an generic commercial uptempo simply because it's what I enjoy, it's what I listen to and it's what I would like to do. And probably wouldn't be a songwriter because I'd probably be bad at these things. But to each their own.

 

[Mainshow]

Each to their own, I guess, fair enough.

I still fail to see the "no individual character" when a song is clearly written by the artist himself, is based on a personal story and, in my opinion, well-written and didn't sound like any other entry in the competition. I have to say that lyrics play a huge role in the way how I consume music, though, and that I study literature and two languages at university. I like the clever use of metaphors instead of generic commercial uptempo songs.

Another example when it comes to ballads maybe... I don't really like "Limits" by PAENDA but it clearly has an individual character and felt authentic. Me not liking a song would never result in taking away their characteristics.

 

[Ana Raquel]

It's more about they may not necessarily know how to express their stories in lyrics by themselves. On the other hand, lyrics are clearly the least important thing to me when it comes to my interest in music - which is 80% about melody to me, so maybe there's that. I just really notice lyrics in three situations:
1 - when they're really good
2 - when they're really bad (as you're a britney stan as well, it should be easy comes to mind )
3 - when they're really problematic (but it's something i notice more when it's in a language i'm used to)

Oh, I also don't like Limits that's probably because i listened to her work beforehand and had some expectations that weren't fulfilled. The staging was pretty good though, immersive as it should have been. Not complaining about her placement, but deserved a better score with the televote, for sure.

 

[tuorem]

Personally, all I ask is diversity in terms of music genres (unlike 2016 that was too homogeneous imo) as well as some risk-taking entries that might stand a chance of scoring well (because it's boring otherwise).

Out of all the winning songs of the last decade - I'd replace four of them without a doubt, which isn't a lot come to think of it. Yet I think we need another iconic winner next year: winners who stand out and don't suffer from beige plague are the best imo.

 

[Ana Raquel]

Oh, I support diversity as well. The jury surely needs to tank every single entry that doesn't sound like a commercial swedish pop (which i like but... sis i'm still mad about igranka)

 

[Fluke]

I didn't say anything about the other winners - only that in 2016 especially, it was one of the few good things about that year's contest.

Looking back now at all of the 2016 entries, there actually were about a dozen decent songs, but none really stood out and they were all in pretty safe, non-ethnic, genres, not daring or new for ESC in any way, and i just got a really strong feeling the same will happen now, not just because of the winner but the overall result.

The only particularly daring entries to do well in 2019 were Australia, ironically as they are otherwise jury favorites but not this time, and Iceland, which was bound to be a one-off and mostly because of the staging anyway. You could say Slovenia too, they were daring by being boring

Otherwise the most daring or unusual entries got sacked in the semis, and i know that's just as much because of the actual quality of the songs and performances, but still, what do the people who choose the entries for next year make of Armenia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Georgia and Portugal failing, they'll see it as a sign that non-English or non-pop songs won't work. And as i stated, the upside is that a Jamala or Conchita-like standout may very well win for doing something different!

 

[LastDreamer]

I'm really afraid ESC 2020, especially when awful 0/10 songs won in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

 

[tuorem]

You could say Slovenia too, they were daring by being boring

I'd add Italy in there: "Soldi" was pretty refreshing compared to what we usually hear at the contest imo.

I'm really afraid ESC 2020, especially when awful 0/10 songs won in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

Don't be scared, you are a Eurovision clairvoyant. I look forward to your future 2020 bottom 5, so that we can discover next year's winner as soon as possible.

 

[Brandt]

Other than 2013, I wouldn't really call any year "weak" in the past 11 years.

 

[Ana Raquel]

2013 is great though?????????? where's defense squad when i need it

 

[DenizESC]

Other than 2013, I wouldn't really call any year "weak" in the past 11 years.

2013>2014-2019

2015-2019 boring basic bish years

 

[Citelis]

2013 was the best of the 10s!

 

[Romeo]

Technically 2020 WAS a dud year (it didn't happen).

So Fluke is the Baba Vanga of the forum!