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2020 Bold Predictions

Who will win ESC 2020?

  • Albania

    4 3.6%
  • Armenia

    3 2.7%
  • Australia

    1 0.9%
  • Austria

    2 1.8%
  • Azerbaijan

    2 1.8%
  • Belarus

    0 0.0%
  • Belgium

    6 5.4%
  • Bulgaria

    6 5.4%
  • Croatia

    0 0.0%
  • Cyprus

    1 0.9%
  • Czech Republic

    6 5.4%
  • Denmark

    1 0.9%
  • Estonia

    3 2.7%
  • Finland

    0 0.0%
  • France

    7 6.3%
  • Georgia

    2 1.8%
  • Germany

    1 0.9%
  • Greece

    2 1.8%
  • Hungary

    1 0.9%
  • Iceland

    3 2.7%
  • Ireland

    1 0.9%
  • Israel

    0 0.0%
  • Italy

    5 4.5%
  • Latvia

    0 0.0%
  • Lithuania

    6 5.4%
  • Malta

    3 2.7%
  • Moldova

    0 0.0%
  • Montenegro

    0 0.0%
  • Netherlands

    5 4.5%
  • North Macedonia

    0 0.0%
  • Norway

    1 0.9%
  • Poland

    3 2.7%
  • Portugal

    0 0.0%
  • Romania

    4 3.6%
  • Russia

    3 2.7%
  • San Marino

    2 1.8%
  • Serbia

    1 0.9%
  • Slovenia

    2 1.8%
  • Spain

    0 0.0%
  • Sweden

    8 7.1%
  • Switzerland

    8 7.1%
  • Ukraine

    3 2.7%
  • United Kingdom

    5 4.5%
  • Someone else

    1 0.9%

  • Total voters
    112

Nemo89

Active member
Joined
February 13, 2020
Posts
409
Out of curiosity, do you think Italy could win the televote?
The question is this: everyone is afraid of the jury vote and the great publicity that can push a song to win the ESC. Sobral was not a favorite, nor among the top 5, then suddenly he won (for me, more or less, deservedly).

However, you have to think that despite the harsh criticisms received, the Diodato song also received many compliments (the European preference is not only that of EscYOUnited which is a small part), it is in the high ranking of betting odds and has received millions of views.

Italy's risk of victory is high. Maybe it won't happen but the danger exists.
 

HayashiM

Veteran
Joined
January 26, 2019
Posts
3,992
Location
Prague, Czech Republic
Out of curiosity, do you think Italy could win the televote?

I think that anything is possible this year. Unless Little Big come up with something both outrageous while still musically compelling for the juries, the field is wide open. A big televote/juryvote discrepancy is likely in that case, most probably even more striking than the last year.

As for Diodato, those vocals should have no problem going very high with the juries. In that case, even a mid top 10 ish televote can suffice for an overall victory. It's not super likely, but I'd subjectively say the probability is higher than the 5% currently given by the betting odds.
 

mauve

Veteran
Joined
February 28, 2018
Posts
10,554
Location
Germany
Diodato winning would be very fine with me ... looking at the top 10 of the betting odds, the ones I would liket o win are Italy, Germany, Switzerland and Romania. But there are two monthes left, and everything can happen ...
 

LastDreamer

Banned
Joined
June 22, 2016
Posts
3,926
Location
Psichopatų slėnis
Lithuania - not in Top 10
Germany - not in Top 5
Russia - bottom 5 by juries and 10-15th place in summary
Italy - best result from Big 5
UK - worst result from Big 5
Malta - winner
San Marino - DNQ
Sweden - Top 3
Norway - Top 5
Slovenia - last place in semifinal 1
Portugal - last place in semifinal 2
 

AleksTheDino

Active member
Joined
February 25, 2020
Posts
173
Location
Germany
In an unpredictable year, it will happen for the first time that we have 5 winners:
Bulgaria, Iceland, Lithuania, Romania and Switzerland all receive the exact same amount of points. To choose the next host country, the singers of each country will play rock paper scissors on stage. Switzerland will win and make the other countries sad because they still never hosted eurovision
 

tuorem

Well-known member
Joined
January 17, 2012
Posts
9,592
Location
GN-z11
San Marino randomly goes top 10


Wait maybe it isn't that bold sorry

The word "randomly" is the only bold part of your post indeed xqueenbitch

People at home will get freaky! xdance

I announce a :ch: victory
Imagine the sweat irony if they won with a french song

I would like to see our HoD's face at that very moment! :devilish:
 

Alaska49

Well-known member
Joined
April 18, 2013
Posts
2,895
my 2019 vote in italy is NULL AND VOID
 

LastDreamer

Banned
Joined
June 22, 2016
Posts
3,926
Location
Psichopatų slėnis
If Lithuania will win one day, that I wish to see my beloved lady as Eurovision winner.
 

Kaz

Well-known member
Joined
January 12, 2014
Posts
2,082
Semi 1:
:sl: is the dark horse of the competition and finishes top 15
:cy: and :hr: qualify over :ua: and :ro:
Common fan consensus that :ie: has one of the best stagings this year

Semi 2:
:pl: and :ee: tie in last place
:md: and :fi: qualify
:lv: finishes higher with the jury than the televote

Overall winner is :it:
 

Nemo89

Active member
Joined
February 13, 2020
Posts
409
For me, the sure qualifiers of the first semifinal will be:

8/10:

:lt:
:no:
:mt:
:il:
:ua:
:ro:
:au:
:be:

:se: he must hope that in :ru:, in :az:, they will not bring strong songs or the risk of elimination will be very high. In practice there would be 4 songs for only 2 places available! Of course, :se: could easily overtake :mk:, :by:, :cy:, :hr: and :sl: but not :ie:. It would be a nice nightmare for them! Especially this year where the level of their song is not excellent (it seems that they have chosen, to save time, the choristers of Lundvik) and the level of the other songs which is not as low as everyone believes. My calculations are not based on personal preferences but on the observation of some data: appreciation of the public, betting odds, ESC level (appeal, placings, wins and alliances) and real beauty of the song.

For me, the sure qualifiers of the second semifinal will be:

10/10:

:rs:
:is:
:cz:
:gr:
:dk:
:bg:
:ch:
:lv:
:ge:
:al:

In a nutshell the eliminated will be :at:, :md:, :pl:, :sm:, :ee:, :fi:, :am: and :pt:. For me this semifinal, barring surprises, is already established. The problem with this second semifinal is that it is much more difficult than the first and inevitably there will be excellent eliminations. For my evaluation I have adopted the same criteria as before.

Forecast for the final:

If Sweden were to be eliminated, the "Scandinavian Block" in jury votes will be weakened. Norway and Denmark would find themselves alone and without outside help (perhaps France could now help the "Lundvik-Gson pact"): the United Kingdom will try to work together with Australia and Ireland... the Iceland (among the favorites for victory); the "Baltic Block", if Russia manages to qualify it would become very powerful: Lithuania (among the favorites for the victory) could receive help in the jury votes from Latvia, Russia and Ukraine. Bulgaria (among the favorites for the victory) could receive help from Romania, Serbia, Georgia and Norway and Denmark (convinced that they can do nothing but achieve a respectable position in the ranking) and from France (convinced in this exchange of alliances not to sink due to a poor song). Israel that many of you praise as a winner will not win (the song is not stratospheric and would be geopolitically isolated. Out of the alliances established for this edition). Italy and Switzerland (the other two favorites for the victory), when it will be understood who between the two must be "the wall-breaker" (if Switzerland is chosen it could receive some points from the French), they will be helped by Germany, Spain, Albania and perhaps from the Czech Republic, Israel, Belgium, Netherlands, Malta and Greece (always if they have not chosen to join one of the other three blocks). The importance of the "fourth block" is to be cohesive, because if it is not so, the victory is sure: either Lithuania or Iceland or Bulgaria. It's safe! So whoever wins the ESC2020 will be a nation between: Iceland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Italy or Switzerland. It's true, the ESC is unpredictable but if you read between the lines and open your eyes well, whoever plays the champion title is clear.

Have you seen what could happen if Sweden is eliminated? However with sweden at stake, the direction is little different. The Swedes could be the needle for choosing the winner.

This prediction does not count the public vote that will be fought whether to reward the emotions of a ballad or the crazy dances of a catchy song.
 

AleksTheDino

Active member
Joined
February 25, 2020
Posts
173
Location
Germany
If Sweden were to be eliminated, the "Scandinavian Block" in jury votes will be weakened. Norway and Denmark would find themselves alone and without outside help

I'm probably not understanding something right here, but why would it change anything for the final if Sweden doesnt qualify? All the eliminated countries will still give out points both from the public and from the televote. It would actually help Norway, Iceland and Denmark if Sweden isnt there, because all the nordic votes will go them and not to Sweden.

For the semi finals, Im not sure about Belgium at all, I actually think they wont make it. Same with Albania in the second semi.

Also I would throw in Romania as a possible winner, and even some that we cannot expect now depending on their staging. Even Germany, Georgia or Australia could still surprise us. On the other hand, I really cannot imagine Italy winning. It's a nice ballad, but we have so many good ballads this year, many of which I see as superior (Bulgaria, Switzerland, Romania.)
 

LastDreamer

Banned
Joined
June 22, 2016
Posts
3,926
Location
Psichopatų slėnis
Bulgaria will not win with this forgettable/average entry.
 

Nemo89

Active member
Joined
February 13, 2020
Posts
409
I'm probably not understanding something right here, but why would it change anything for the final if Sweden doesnt qualify? All the eliminated countries will still give out points both from the public and from the televote. It would actually help Norway, Iceland and Denmark if Sweden isnt there, because all the nordic votes will go them and not to Sweden.

For the semi finals, Im not sure about Belgium at all, I actually think they wont make it. Same with Albania in the second semi.

Also I would throw in Romania as a possible winner, and even some that we cannot expect now depending on their staging. Even Germany, Georgia or Australia could still surprise us. On the other hand, I really cannot imagine Italy winning. It's a nice ballad, but we have so many good ballads this year, many of which I see as superior (Bulgaria, Switzerland, Romania.)
It is different whether Sweden remains in the race or not. At least as far as I think, alliances change. It is true that the eliminated countries can contribute with the jury votes (we are not talking about televoting) but they, being eliminated, can decide to push one song instead of another. For example, it is possible that Sweden, if it were eliminated, might surprisely vote for Diodato (who has good relations with Swedish artists). Instead the countries in the race, those who have to secure a position in the ranking, must necessarily make precise calculations: understand what the strength of their song is and, if this is not strong to be able to win, and in the absence of historical alliances, they must decide to join a Block to avoid defeat (trust me, France will not end up in Bottom 5). Obviously, joining a Block means trying to bring to victory the song chosen by the block itself, the song with the greatest chance of winning.

Romania has a good song and could replace Bulgaria for the victory but ... I have read many comments, I have checked the betting odds and I have compared the votes received ... Bulgaria is ahead of Romania.

However, Bulgaria and Iceland, personal opinion, are the least strong candidates for the victory. Lithuania is the favorite or perhaps surprisingly Italy or Switzerland can win. Mine are calculations and not preferences. My calculations only predict the winner and not the exact position of the songs in the ranking.
 
Last edited:

Alaska49

Well-known member
Joined
April 18, 2013
Posts
2,895
bold prediction: roxen is this year's kate ryan lol
 
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