For me, the sure qualifiers of the first semifinal will be:
8/10:
he must hope that in
, in
, they will not bring strong songs or the risk of elimination will be very high. In practice there would be 4 songs for only 2 places available! Of course,
could easily overtake
,
,
,
and
but not
. It would be a nice nightmare for them! Especially this year where the level of their song is not excellent (it seems that they have chosen, to save time, the choristers of Lundvik) and the level of the other songs which is not as low as everyone believes. My calculations are not based on personal preferences but on the observation of some data: appreciation of the public, betting odds, ESC level (appeal, placings, wins and alliances) and real beauty of the song.
For me, the sure qualifiers of the second semifinal will be:
10/10:
In a nutshell the eliminated will be
,
,
,
,
,
,
and
. For me this semifinal, barring surprises, is already established. The problem with this second semifinal is that it is much more difficult than the first and inevitably there will be excellent eliminations. For my evaluation I have adopted the same criteria as before.
Forecast for the final:
If Sweden were to be eliminated, the "Scandinavian Block" in jury votes will be weakened. Norway and Denmark would find themselves alone and without outside help (perhaps France could now help the "Lundvik-Gson pact"): the United Kingdom will try to work together with Australia and Ireland... the Iceland (among the favorites for victory); the "Baltic Block", if Russia manages to qualify it would become very powerful: Lithuania (among the favorites for the victory) could receive help in the jury votes from Latvia, Russia and Ukraine. Bulgaria (among the favorites for the victory) could receive help from Romania, Serbia, Georgia and Norway and Denmark (convinced that they can do nothing but achieve a respectable position in the ranking) and from France (convinced in this exchange of alliances not to sink due to a poor song). Israel that many of you praise as a winner will not win (the song is not stratospheric and would be geopolitically isolated. Out of the alliances established for this edition). Italy and Switzerland (the other two favorites for the victory), when it will be understood who between the two must be "the wall-breaker" (if Switzerland is chosen it could receive some points from the French), they will be helped by Germany, Spain, Albania and perhaps from the Czech Republic, Israel, Belgium, Netherlands, Malta and Greece (always if they have not chosen to join one of the other three blocks). The importance of the "fourth block" is to be cohesive, because if it is not so, the victory is sure: either Lithuania or Iceland or Bulgaria. It's safe! So whoever wins the ESC2020 will be a nation between: Iceland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Italy or Switzerland. It's true, the ESC is unpredictable but if you read between the lines and open your eyes well, whoever plays the champion title is clear.
Have you seen what could happen if Sweden is eliminated? However with sweden at stake, the direction is little different. The Swedes could be the needle for choosing the winner.
This prediction does not count the public vote that will be fought whether to reward the emotions of a ballad or the crazy dances of a catchy song.