Betting Odds 2022

[Realest]

We finally have the first Odds:

1	Sweden	5%	13	11	14
2	Russia	4%		13	23
3	Italy	4%	17	12	17
4	France	4%	17	14	34
5	Switzerland	3%		14	38
6	Norway	3%		20	17
7	Cyprus	3%		18	32
7	Iceland	3%		18	32
7	Ukraine	3%		18	32
10	Australia	3%		18	36
11	Netherlands	3%		20	32
12	Belgium artist: Jérémie Makiese	3%		21	32
13	Moldova	3%		20	42
14	Finland	2%		22	36
14	Israel	2%		21	42
14	Malta	2%		21	42
17	Azerbaijan	2%		23	32
17	Denmark	2%		23	32
17	Estonia	2%		23	32
20	Czech Republic	2%		22	42
20	Lithuania	2%		22	42
20	Portugal	2%		22	42
23	Austria	2%		20	55
24	Greece	2%		24	32
25	Armenia	2%		24	38
26	Romania	2%		24	42
27	Ireland	2%	26	27	55
28	Slovenia	2%		26	55
29	Serbia	2%		25	65
30	Croatia	2%		27	55
30	Germany	2%	34	22	55
32	Spain	2%		27	60
33	United Kingdom	2%	34	27	60
34	North Macedonia	2%		23	100
35	Latvia	2%		26	90
35	Poland	2%		26	90
37	Albania	2%		25	100
38	Montenegro	2%		27	110
38	San Marino	2%		27	110
40	Georgia artist: Circus Mircus	1%		27	150
41	Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	1%		75	55

 

[Realest]

Why is #7?

1	Sweden	6%		13	12	15	15
2	Russia	5%				16	16
3	Italy	5%		17		17	18
4	Germany	5%		17		20	20
5	Norway	4%				19	19
6	Poland	4%				20	21
7	Latvia	4%				22	23
8	Greece artist: Amanda Georgiadis Tenfjord	4%				23	24
9	France	3%		23		26	27
10	Australia	3%				28	29
11	Cyprus	3%				29	30
12	Spain	3%				30	32
12	Ukraine	3%				30	32
14	Armenia	3%				32	34
14	Iceland	3%				32	34
16	Netherlands artist: S10	2%				34	36
17	Azerbaijan	2%				36	38
17	Denmark	2%				36	38
17	Finland	2%				36	38
17	Switzerland	2%				36	38
21	United Kingdom	2%	41	34		38	40
22	Belgium artist: Jérémie Makiese	2%				38	40
23	Lithuania	2%				42	44
23	Malta	2%				42	44
25	Moldova	2%				46	48
25	Portugal	2%				46	48
27	Ireland	2%	51	26		75	80
28	Estonia	2%				48	50
28	Romania	2%				48	50
30	Austria	2%				50	55
31	Croatia	2%				55	60
31	Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	2%				55	60
31	Israel	2%				55	60
34	Serbia	1%				60	65
34	Slovenia	1%				60	65
36	Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	1%				70	75
37	San Marino	1%				90	100
38	Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	1%				100	110
38	North Macedonia	1%				100	110
40	Georgia artist: Circus Mircus	1%				130	150
41	Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	<1%				200	230

 

[mauve]

Why is #7?

Because of Aminata? (Though I myself don't like the song)

And we could also ask: Why is 4th? Does everyone think we can't get any lower?

 

[Realest]

Because of Aminata? (Though I myself don't like the song)

And we could also ask: Why is 4th? Does everyone think we can't get any lower?

Because there is a small Chance for EC obviously.

 

[njdevils94]

Why is #7?

Not many people need a place a bet for the odds to move up a lot . That's why odds aren't serious to me until late February at the earliest.

 

[Realest]

Did I miss Something?

1	Australia	10%			8	8.2
2	Sweden	6%		13	14	15
3	Russia	5%			16	16
4	Italy	5%		17	16	16
5	Germany	4%		17	20	21
6	Norway	4%			19	19
7	Poland	4%			21	22
8	Spain	3%			23	24
9	France	3%		23	26	27
10	Finland	3%			25	26
11	Armenia	3%			29	30
11	Cyprus	3%			29	30
11	Ukraine	3%			29	30
14	Greece artist: Amanda Georgiadis Tenfjord	3%			30	32
15	Latvia	2%			32	34
16	Iceland	2%			34	36
16	Netherlands artist: S10	2%			34	36
18	Azerbaijan	2%			36	38
18	Switzerland	2%			36	38
20	Belgium artist: Jérémie Makiese	2%			38	40
20	Denmark	2%			38	40
22	United Kingdom	2%	41	34	42	42
23	Lithuania	2%			42	44
24	Malta	2%			46	48
24	Portugal	2%			46	48
26	Ireland	2%	51	26	75	80
27	Estonia	2%			48	50
27	Moldova	2%			48	50
27	Romania	2%			48	50
30	Austria	2%			50	55
31	Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	1%			55	60
31	Israel	1%			55	60
33	Croatia	1%			60	65
33	Serbia	1%			60	65
33	Slovenia	1%			60	65
36	Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	1%			75	80
37	Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	1%			100	110
37	North Macedonia	1%			100	110
37	San Marino	1%			100	110
40	Georgia artist: Circus Mircus	1%			130	150
41	Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	<1%			200	230

 

[heke1988]

Did I miss Something?

The Rasmus effect.

 

[esc87fan]

Sheldon Riley released a teaser of his ESC song, and I guess the hype sent Australia to the top of the bookies' odds

 

[I bims]

Sheldon Riley released a teaser of his ESC song, and I guess the hype sent Australia to the top of the bookies' odds

Where? I can't find anything. I'm very excited for his song!

EDIT: Found it! For anyone interested:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

 

[Mainshow]

Where? I can't find anything. I'm very excited for his song!

EDIT: Found it! For anyone interested:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Haha, I hate such teaser - we basically didn´t even get a line and we have no clue how this song will turn out but thanks for sharing!
It is great to know (somehow predictable, though) that Sheldon will be able to showcase his vocal abilities by singing that song. Cant wait to hear the whole song!

 

[heke1988]

Although Eurovision winning odds doesn't matter yet, but Finland is up to tied 7th place with Norway.

	winning chance	BET365	LAD BROKES	*SMARKETS	BETFAIR* EXCHANGE
1	Sweden	6%		13	14	15
2	Russia	5%			16	17
3	Italy	5%		17	16	17
4	Australia	5%			18	18
4	Spain	5%			18	18
6	Germany	4%		17	21	22
7	Finland	4%			20	20
7	Norway	4%			20	20
9	Poland	4%			22	23
10	France	3%		23	25	26
11	Armenia	3%			29	30
11	Cyprus	3%			29	30
11	Ukraine	3%			29	30
14	Greece artist: Amanda Georgiadis Tenfjord	3%			30	32
15	Latvia	2%			34	36
15	Netherlands artist: S10	2%			34	36
17	Azerbaijan	2%			36	38
17	Iceland	2%			36	38
17	Switzerland	2%			36	38
20	Belgium artist: Jérémie Makiese	2%			38	40
21	United Kingdom	2%	41	34	42	42
22	Denmark	2%			40	42
23	Lithuania	2%			46	48
23	Malta	2%			46	48
23	Portugal	2%			46	48
26	Ireland	2%	51	26	75	80
27	Estonia	2%			48	50
27	Moldova	2%			48	50
27	Romania	2%			48	50
30	Israel	2%			50	55
31	Austria	1%			55	60
32	Croatia	1%			60	65
32	Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	1%			60	65
32	Serbia	1%			60	65
32	Slovenia	1%			60	65
36	Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	1%			70	75
37	Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	1%			100	110
37	North Macedonia	1%			100	110
37	San Marino	1%			100	110
40	Georgia artist: Circus Mircus	1%			130	150
41	Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	<1%			200	230

 

[Mainshow]

Poland #9. Doda. Ha power.

 

[lasse braun]

i would give albania 2%.

 

[heke1988]

Poland #9. Doda. Ha power.

Now Poland jumped to 8th place and Finland lowed to 9th place.

 

[mauve]

Finland jumped on the 3rd place! Rasmus-effect.

 

[Realest]

 

[NemesisNick]

I've seen the currently available betting odds on Eurovision World the last few weeks. How on Earth, in the world, are bookmakers able to calculate odds when only two or three countries have picked / announced their song and artist?

Earlier this week the ESC 2022 Semi-Final Allocation Draw took place. The allocation of countries to the two semi-finals will now affect which ones can get to the Grand Final. The rules say the top 10 (based on a combination of jury and televote) go to the Grand Final. The upshot of this is, you can't have say 15 countries qualify from semi-final 1 and 5 countries qualify from semi-final 2 or vice versa. Here's an experiment with nCr formula to compare possibilities before and after this week's allocation draw.

Before Allocation Draw: 20 countries out of 36 non-Big Five countries.
36 C 20 = 7,307,872,110 possible combinations of 20 countries in the ESC 2022 Grand Final.

After Allocation Draw: 10 countries out of 18 First Semi-Final countries + 10 countries out of 18 Second Semi-Final countries
ESC 2022 First Semi-Final: 18 C 10 = 43,758 possible combinations of 10 qualifiers from the ESC 2022 First Semi-Final
ESC 2022 Second Semi-Final: 18 C 10 = 43,758 possible combinations of 10 qualifiers from the ESC 2022 Second Semi-Final

Total: 43,758 + 43,758 = 87,516 possible combinations of 20 countries in the ESC 2022 Grand Final.

N.B. The two semi-finals are independent, so the selection of 10 countries from the First Semi-Final does not affect the selection of 10 countries from the second semi-final.

From this analysis, splitting the 36 non-Big Five countries into two semi-finals by way of the draw three days ago has drastically reduced the number of possible combinations of 20 countries in the ESC 2022 Grand Final. Obviously this alone may have affected the betting odds in the immedite aftermath of the draw, but I still think the odds are utterly meaningless until all 41 countries' songs have been chosen and submitted to the EBU around the middle of March (remember, some countries revamp their chosen song between selection and the official preview video coming out).

 

[ESC94]

WTF?? in third position??

Odds Eurovision Song Contest 2024

Who will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2024? Bookmakers have predicted Switzerland with best odds

eurovisionworld.com

 

[simonPL]

^ Now it's #2. Lol.

Is it because of "Move" that was released two days ago?

Karolina Stanisławczyk & Chika Toro - "Move" prod. Peter Pann (official music video)

Stream "Move": http://www.soundline.biz/KarolinaStanislawczykMove"Move" takes part in the official final of Polish preselection for The Eurovision Song Conte...

www.youtube.com

 

[revallsay]

It's beacuse of Krystian Ochman's song leak

 

[revallsay]

POLAND FIRST IN THE BOOKIES AM CRYING