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Who WILL qualify from Semi 2?

Who will qualify from Semi 2?

  • :ee: Estonia

    14 18.2%
  • :gr: Greece

    63 81.8%
  • :is: Iceland

    70 90.9%
  • :md: Moldova

    17 22.1%
  • :at: Austria

    37 48.1%
  • :sm: San Marino

    19 24.7%
  • :rs: Serbia

    61 79.2%
  • :cz: Czech Republic

    29 37.7%
  • :pl: Poland

    38 49.4%
  • :am: Armenia

    23 29.9%
  • :bg: Bulgaria

    72 93.5%
  • :dk: Denmark

    61 79.2%
  • :fi: Finland

    14 18.2%
  • :ge: Georgia

    41 53.2%
  • :lv: Latvia

    40 51.9%
  • :pt: Portugal

    8 10.4%
  • :ch: Switzerland

    69 89.6%
  • :al: Albania

    35 45.5%

  • Total voters
    77
  • Poll closed .

Realest

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Surprised to see :md: that low. I mean since when does Kirkorov not qualify?
 

Alaska49

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well, kirkorov also has never sent something that terrible outside the safety of the russian flag. there is a first time for everything.
 

Leydan

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18,237
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SAFE
:bg: :dk: :ch:

LIKELY
:is: :gr: :rs:

ABOVE THE BORDERLINE
:ge: :md: :at: :pl:

BELOW THE BORDERLINE
:cz: :am: :pt: :al:

DNQ
:ee: :sm: :fi: :lv:



There isn't much to say about the safes, I think we all pretty much agree on them. I also can't see any of the likely songs failing either, although I'm least sure on 🇮🇸 tbh. The border is where it's all at play. I think 🇲🇩, 🇦🇹, 🇵🇹 & 🇦🇱 will all have jury support to varying degrees, but I don't think the televote will be all that hot for them. 🇲🇩 looking at who is with them, I can't imagine getting a huge amount of televote points outside a few exceptions. I'm also fairly sure 🇵🇹 will absolute bomb in the televote, it's a nice song but it's going to get so washed out with all the other ballads and it being very low key. 🇨🇿 & 🇦🇲 will do better in the televote but I think juries will be lacking. 🇦🇲 I'm thinking could have the strongest shot out of the 4. 🇵🇱 I think will do a last year and even out in the middle, but on the right side of the border. 🇬🇪 I literally have no idea. The DNQs are right offs as far as i'm concerned.

Now ofc for me to be completely wrong. xheart
 

midnightsun

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Changed my opinion on Estonia. I think this will qualify, considering it qualified last year and I did not get who would would vote for it... until it was one of my Mum's favourites. Then I knew there's always a target audience for that kind of song.

I also think Moldova is borderline. I'd say it's a qualifier but all countries likely to vote for this based on similar taste of music (Russia, Ukraine, Romania etc.) are in the other semi so chances are still low.

Safe NQ are Finland :cry:, Latvia, Austria, Portugal.
 

NikolaiMoller

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Posts
6,887
Changed my opinion on Estonia. I think this will qualify, considering it qualified last year and I did not get who would would vote for it... until it was one of my Mum's favourites. Then I knew there's always a target audience for that kind of song.

I also think Moldova is borderline. I'd say it's a qualifier but all countries likely to vote for this based on similar taste of music (Russia, Ukraine, Romania etc.) are in the other semi so chances are still low.

Safe NQ are Finland :cry:, Latvia, Austria, Portugal.

My mom likes Estonia too :oops:
 

Ana Raquel

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A song that is not too try hard in the middle of a bunch of try hard songs (and can get televote's appeal because of this) + a jury bait in a semi without many jury baits? Hmmm don't really think they are safe NQs
 

Iker

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March 13, 2018
Posts
3,415
Denmark
Iceland
Serbia
Austria
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Latvia
Denmark
Poland
Greece
 

QuirkyYodel

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February 27, 2019
Posts
68
All I know is that Arilena will break the curse :al: seems to have had lately after revamping their songs in English and qualify.x12points
 

Kaz

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Posts
2,082
Certain
:bg: No explanation needed, one of the big favourites to win the whole competition and rightfully so.
:is: This is unique and memorable enough to qualify irrespective of its running order.

Likely
:dk: Pleasant enough, and Denmark can usually qualify with "pleasant enough" (see: Leonora, Soluna Samay, Anja Nissen).
:fi: I actually think Aksel will be able to qualify, the song is fresh and the staging at UMK leads to high promises for Rotterdam.
:gr: Really depends on live performance, I'm a little skeptical of Stefania's live performance abilities since she is so young, but we'll see.
:lv: Given the number of ballads in the second half of this semi, Latvia will absolutely stand out and Samanta Tina will set the stage on literal fire. I also want to say that this would make an amazing show closer, but we all remember what happened last time Latvia closed the semi with an intense performance in 2017...

Borderline +
:al: Regardless of whether or not you agree that the revamp was the right choice, we know Arilena can pull songs off live. Her performances at FiK were out of this world and I have no reason to doubt her abilities in May.
:at: Should gather reasonable jury support, although Vincent is rather uncharismatic (at least from the music video) so I'm unsure about televote.
:md: Moldova can always be counted on to improve a mediocre song with fantastic staging. Presumably the staging from the NF was just a demo, and I'm cautiously optimistic that Moldova will actually be able to make it through this year.
:pl: It's a good song, but will it stand out? Alicja will also really need to improve her live, especially with the added high note in the music video cut.
:sm: Maybe this is just false hope, but if San Marino could qualify last year, I really don't see why they wouldn't be able to again this year. This absolutely has a lot of potential for staging and I could definitely see them sneaking through again.
:ch: I'm placing Switzerland here based solely off the studio version, since the staging and live performance will either make or break this. There's a lot of pressure on Gjon to be vocally on point, and I do actually get a weird sense that this could be a shock flop.

Borderline -
:am: Despite being a modern track, juries are going to absolutely crucify this song. Qualification would require a lot of points from the public which I don't think Athena will be able to gather.
:ge: No points from the Big 5 lol, the song is probably too polarizing to gather enough points for qualification, in my opinion.
:pt: Unfortunately the only thing which this really has going for it is the fact that it's one of the few non-English songs in this semi. Other than that, I can see Portugal getting forgotten.
:rs: It's just a dated, messy package, and Serbia doesn't have very many allies in this semi either other than maybe Bulgaria and Greece.

Non-qualifier
:cz: This song (in both its forms) just feels unfinished and although many people may enjoy it, I don't see anyone picking up their phone and paying legitimate money to keep it in the competition.
:ee: I can't see this gaining any support from televoters of any demographic other than 50+ housewives, which really don't constitute enough for Estonia this year unfortunately.

I think that the final 10 will be:

:al: :at: :bg: :dk: :fi: :gr: :is: :lv: :md: :sm:
 

Realest

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First Prediction:

01 :dk:
02 :is:
03 :ch:
04 :cz:
05 :at:
06 :bg:
07 :rs:
08 :ee:
09 :md:
10 :al:
11 :gr:
12 :am:
13 :pl:
14 :ge:
15 :lv:
16 :fi:
17 :pt:
18 :sm:

After a few Revamps, my Prediction looks like this:

01 :dk:
02 :is:
03 :ch:
04 :bg:
05 :at:
06 :rs:
07 :md:
08 :ee:
09 :am:
10 :al:
11 :gr:
12 :pl:
13 :cz:
14 :fi:
15 :lv:
16 :ge:
17 :pt:
18 :sm:
 

DaFlo

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Posts
8,869
Safe
:is: :bg: :dk: :ch:

Borderline +

:cz: :gr: :rs: :fi: :am: :ee:

Borderline -

:at: :md: :sm: :al: :ge: :lv:

DNQ

:pl: :pt:

This semi is a lot more open than semi 1.
 

EscUKFan

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Joined
August 5, 2015
Posts
518
100%
:bg::is::ch::dk:

Likely
:at::cz::rs::pl::ee::fi::gr:

Unlikely
:lv::pt::al::ge::am:

0%
:sm::md:
 

RainyWoods

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Location
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Safe
:is: :bg: :dk: :ch:

Borderline +
:cz: :gr: :rs: :fi: :am: :ee:

Borderline -
:at: :md: :sm: :al: :ge: :lv:

DNQ
:pl: :pt:

This semi is a lot more open than semi 1.

B, you do realise if this prediction ends up true that Eurovision 2020 gets cancelled for me? Like Lord, I would need one of Macedonia or Slovenia from the first semi to actually bother to tune in to the final if this actually happens.
 

theditz83

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Posts
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Wow, this semi is a mess to predict. Some "safe" qualifiers according to the odds (e.g. :ch:) I just don't get at all!

But let's try this...

Safe
:bg: :gr: :dk: :am: :is:

Borderline +
:rs: :lv: :at: :cz: :ee: :ch: (only because of the odds)

Borderline -
:sm: :ge: :fi:

DNQ
:md: :al: :pl: :pt:
 

Nemo89

Active member
Joined
February 13, 2020
Posts
409
This is the order expressed by the poll votes. I want to comment on this order.

Definitely safe:

:bg: Deserves the final and probably the "Top 10" but not the victory... However it seems that this song has the power to enchant Eurofan ... maybe because we all want to feel like Cinderella. According to admirers, few songs outnumber "Come sober". By right in the Olympus of the ESC ".
:is: Deserves the final, the "Top 10" probably but not the victory ... According to many Eurofans, this is the most immersive Pop / Funk ever heard. Would they say the same thing if Netflix's shadow does not envelop Iceland? Hurray brainwashing!
:ch: Deserves the fin, the "Top 10"certainly but not the victory ... the song is pleasant but it is quite anonymous. Is it due to the French language or Swiss that has always been neutral? I remember songs better than this ending in eighth / sixteenth position.
:gr: Song that only Zac Efron is missing to continue with the saga of "Highschool Musical". I don't understand how San Marino and Albania are not appreciated as much as the Greek song ... at this point Armenia is better .... For me, it doesn't deserve the final.
:dk: Sufficient song to reach the final and certainly thanks to good alliances can fight for a place in the low "Top 10". In the final because many songs are inferior.
:rs: Serbia deserves the final and Serbian singers will honor the stage with their show. Song not from victory, not from "Top 10". Honestly I think it is not inferior to the songs that many believe of the masterpieces.
:lv: Overrated song that will surely arrive in the final. For me, it doesn't deserve the final.
:pl: Song that deserves the final but is at risk.
:ge: I have no words xclap For me this song together with Germany could win the ESC. Georgia will reach the "Top 10" but will not win.
:at: Very underrated song. For me, it deserves the final. This song has energy and is well done. But it does not enjoy the favors of the Eurofans who prefer the masterpieces of Greece and Latvia.

Borderline:
:al: Song that deserves the final but could be the "illustrious victim". Eurofans will say "You shouldn't have used English? It was more beautiful before!" Oh yes? Many do not say that the songs if they are not sung in English are not understood and risk not being successful?
:cz: Nice song that was ruined by the changes. I suffered a lot from removing "Kemama" from my "Top 10". Surely this song will fight hard to go to the final but will not succeed in the endeavor.
:am: I don't like it but if Latvia and Greece for many deserve the final then ... Armenia deserves even more!
:sm: He will fight together with Albania and Austria for the final. Will he succeed in the venture?

DNQ
:md: Not bad song but the weakest of the 41. Its flaw is not being able to enter the listener's mind.
:ee: "The Best in Me" 2.0
:fi: Illustrious victim of the semifinal. The song is very underestimated but the struggle to get to the final is too hard for Aksel.
:pt: Not bad song but that is the victim of an edition of the ESC full of ballads.
 

DaFlo

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B, you do realise if this prediction ends up true that Eurovision 2020 gets cancelled for me? Like Lord, I would need one of Macedonia or Slovenia from the first semi to actually bother to tune in to the final if this actually happens.
Damn b I predicted both of them to be safe DNQs in semi 1 as well.

Lucky you my qualifier predictions been trash last few years
 
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