I've been looking at my country's chances to win and I succeeded to be delusional and think it could win
So
here's my whole essay
Why it could win :
+ It's doing well almost everywhere (top 5 or 1st in the ranking game here as an example), I watched some reactions videos to the recap of all songs and it seemed each time to have an impact.
+ The genre of the song screams televote top 5.
+ I don't think it's gonna be butchered as Ukraine 21 was in the jury vote, the song is more accessible and I do think jury are biased like A LOT : just the "France" name, the fact it's unexpected for the country and the kinda political aspect behind it (minority language and culture represented) could appeal to juries.
+ It's more like a performance than a song and those entries tend to do well, it's Eurovision, people want a show or something unusual (Basically from Sweden 2015 to Italy 2021 they're all unusual except The Netherlands that was more tame).
+ All the good and worthy winning ballads could cancel each other, like all having points but they can't all have 12 points, while some uptempo/unusual stuff can take bread crumbs in each jury vote, enough to let them enter top 5 jury voting.
Why it won't :
- There's A LOT of jury bait this year and even if France ranks high, I can think about 5 more jury friendly countries. They would have to enter the top 5 jury to get the win.
- The performance we saw wasn't polished at all and the big question is if the HOD can bring the magic to the ESC Stage and get them closer to the win (more likely no than yes)
- There are better songs and as I type this we don't know the staging yet, so some countries with a better package to take it all.
- They have big competition for the televote win.
IF NOT :
I do think you guys already called it, the Winner is probably in the ones you all shared. I'm just delusional