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Eurovision 2022 Potential winners

EfendiFanSpain

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This are the potential winners I will have in account:
1.United Kingdom
2.Italy
3.Ukraine
4: The Netherlands
5.Spain
6.Sweden
7.Belgium

What are your potential winners?
 

burrito

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:nl: :se: are the first two ones that come to my mind
:ua: as a surprise winner thanks to 80% it being a good song, 20% to "pity votes" for lack of a better word

:es: generates a big hype but whether will it translate to the results, i'm not convinced about that
:it: was pretty much hyped up before but now it has subsided and comparing to other potential winners I can see it in top 3 max, not winning tho

others are pretty much chanceless
 

A-lister

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Very hard to say, we could have a surprise winner (which often happens in weak years).

On paper, :ee: has that winning formula song. But whether it will end up actually winning, unsure.

I will through in :ua: , :se: and :nl: to the mix , it's very hard to predict. I feel the juries will pick the winner this year.
 

Rudeboy81

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I think you've covered the potential winners well , it's probably the most unpredictable year for ages
 

Zerocalcare

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What is funny is that the Eurovision Song Contest 2022 was considered weak. Instead, in this edition it is almost impossible to locate the best songs and predict the winner. Anyone can win. There may be a surprise winner.

That said, I always value the data rather than my subjective thinking. This YouTube video gives an idea of what the public reaction to the entries has been and reveals which nations could be competitive. The big gap between Mahmood and Blanco and the rest of the participants is extraordinary. It is almost inexplicable... This does not determine that Italy will win but that it is the nation to beat.

If you really want my prediction I tell you:

  1. Ukraine: "Stefania" is a beautiful and particular song and the "historical period" and the diaspora could make him get some more important points.
  2. Italy: since its return it has been considered one of the most appreciated nations for the quality and diversification of its songs. The Italian language, of a musical nature, manages to fascinate the fans. We also add that the "Måneskin effect" and the tough competition between many songs this year could favor it.
  3. Sweden: has a very good song, can enjoy the vote of its own Bloc and has a strong influence on the jury.
  4. All the remaining songs are very strong Dark Horses but at the same level. If I had to tell you who I see most promising among them I would say Portugal, Spain and the UK.
 

Fluke

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From the most likely: Ukraine, Poland, Italy, UK, Norway, Spain, Azerbaijan (why nobody else?!?), Greece, Australia, France
 

A-lister

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Norway could be a contender for the win if there were no juries

Oh yeah, forgot to mention them. I can see them top 3 with televoters, but yeah like you said the juris will for sure make sure that they won't be able to win.

Not that it's my personal fav, but how anyone can be so boring as the juries is beyond me.
 

Zerocalcare

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I also want to leave you this link which can help you get an idea of the potential winner. In this list we can warn that ballads do not dominate this year (which are only 25%). Let's debunk the false belief. At the limit, we can say that this year there are many competitive ballads. If we add Mid Tempo songs to the ballads, the balance expresses the perfect parity between "slow songs" and "fast songs". Looking at the list we see that the least clogged categories are Rock, Ethno Folk and Dance. These categories might surprise bringing a very tall contender who would stand out from the crowd of Ballads, Up Tempo and Mid Tempo. We discard Rock because the songs don't have the strength to win, I always see Ukraine among the potential winners, plus France (in a minor form) and Austria (in a major form) among the contenders. Why do I consider France to be less successful than Austria? Because he has to face a tough battle to emerge in the Etno Folk group where the songs are few but they are all very strong and engaging. If "Fulenn" manages to be the most loved among the ethnic songs it should still clash with the Up Tempo and Dance songs with which it has slight similarities. Austria, on the other hand, having overcome the obstacle of the Czech Republic, and with a spatial staging could take advantage of the Up / Mid Tempo - Ballads traffic in which so many nations have ended up and surprise all of Europe by winning in Turin. Now, these are all speculations but in the end they seem to me to be balanced arguments.
 

popavapeur

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I've been looking at my country's chances to win and I succeeded to be delusional and think it could win

So :fr: here's my whole essay

Why it could win :

+ It's doing well almost everywhere (top 5 or 1st in the ranking game here as an example), I watched some reactions videos to the recap of all songs and it seemed each time to have an impact.
+ The genre of the song screams televote top 5.
+ I don't think it's gonna be butchered as Ukraine 21 was in the jury vote, the song is more accessible and I do think jury are biased like A LOT : just the "France" name, the fact it's unexpected for the country and the kinda political aspect behind it (minority language and culture represented) could appeal to juries.
+ It's more like a performance than a song and those entries tend to do well, it's Eurovision, people want a show or something unusual (Basically from Sweden 2015 to Italy 2021 they're all unusual except The Netherlands that was more tame).
+ All the good and worthy winning ballads could cancel each other, like all having points but they can't all have 12 points, while some uptempo/unusual stuff can take bread crumbs in each jury vote, enough to let them enter top 5 jury voting.

Why it won't :

- There's A LOT of jury bait this year and even if France ranks high, I can think about 5 more jury friendly countries. They would have to enter the top 5 jury to get the win.
- The performance we saw wasn't polished at all and the big question is if the HOD can bring the magic to the ESC Stage and get them closer to the win (more likely no than yes)
- There are better songs and as I type this we don't know the staging yet, so some countries with a better package to take it all.
- They have big competition for the televote win.

IF NOT :
I do think you guys already called it, the Winner is probably in the ones you all shared. I'm just delusional :D
 

midnightsun

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At the moment, looking at betting odds, top 40 vids, Spotify streams etc. we could re-live 2019. :it: :nl: or :se:.
I really hope :nl: will make it like in 2019.
But I guess both Italy and NL don’t want to win that soon again, ESC is expensive…
I also hope they don’t want to leave it to Sweden.

But- the real potential winners will show after the rehearsals. I‘m sure we will know by then who has a realistic chance.
 

Sabrewulf238

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I could see Ukraine winning the televote, but I feel like the juries won't support it enough for it to win outright. Unless Ukraine get the biggest televote score the contest has ever seen.

Italy and Sweden look like the most obvious frontrunners.
 

ChiversLookDivine

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If I had to rank and give reasons, I'd probably say

MOST LIKELY: :it: :se:

Italy are just ahead of Sweden imo. On paper they're very evenly matched, I think juries and televoters will go for these two in equal amounts, although I don't think either country will win the jury vote or televote, they'll both finish Top 5 and one will win overall. I am putting Italy ahead, literally because they're hosting. It's been many years since the host nation sent such a strong entry, and whilst usually the host finishes towards the bottom, here I think it will have the opposite effect and push Italy to the top. Back-to-back winners. Sweden will come very close, and I hope for an exciting race.

COULD HAPPEN :ua: :es: :nl: :pl: :uk:

Ukraine are likely televote winners, though I really don't see the juries going for them. Spain are also placed highly with me as a song that stands out from the field, we know pretty much how it will be staged and Chanel will do a great job with it. The other three countries listed could well win, but it entirely depends on the staging and how good the performance is on the night. I'm surprised so many are sleeping on the Netherlands, it's a fantastic bridge between the more artistic entries of Portugal/Iceland and the more approachable pop of Greece/Sweden. The best of both worlds, and it could sleepwalk to the trophy. Poland and UK are harder to see win, but it's possible. Again, staging needs to be spot on for this to happen. I feel that Poland have a slightly more immediate song that the audience can latch onto quicker, the overall response I've seen to the UK entry is that it's a grower - and since it enters in the final I think it will hold it back.

UNLIKELY :gr: :no: :au: :rs:

These are my 'they have a better than 1% chance, but still very unlikely' pack. Greece... I don't see why they're among the favourites, to me this is less likely to win than Last Dance or Better Love - but I cannot deny its polish and its staging potential. It would take a lot for Norway to win, but in the end of the day it's an extremely polished fun song, it's simple and I can see the audience enjoying it. Australia is very unlikely but I can see juries going for it. And Serbia... I can't see Serbia winning, but I do think they'll be the surprise package that challenges for the Top 10.
 
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Miss Antartica

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I think Italy doesn't want to win again, they don't have another city like Turin with a stadium so suitable for esc. the other big 4 we know that they do not want to win, the only one was Germany but after the euros spent for 2011 they will hardly want to win soon. the Ukrainian is at war and has big economic problems, maybe she will win and save the esc 2023 a Scandinavian but the quality of the songs is vermanete low. I think Poland will win, they have never won a senior esc, they are a growing economy, the song is decent, they are close to the Ukrainian and then they want to win the esc in Italy.
thanks to the Vatican-Italy they managed to get rid of communism in the 80s, the pope was in fact Polish and was put there to bring down communism, and in fact the first country to free itself was Poland.
 

Jopi

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Everyone writing a million countries for a potential, win I have barely 3 for now.

Most likely Italy :it: or Ukraine :ua:.
There's always Sweden :se: even tho I'm not so sure anymore about it.

And from other's I think only Poland :pl: or MAYBE Netherlands :nl: could be the dark horse. That's it.

Mentioning Spain :es: or UK :uk: in the context of the victory is kinda funny:lol:
 

Nicholas123

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:ua: and :se: only at this point. I really don't see :it: making the double.

Genuinely surpised to see so many people having faith in :es: winning the whole thing. :nl: is a dark horse for the 1st place and i'd love seeing them winning, but i fear that in the end they will have to settle for a top-5 at best. :pl: song is nice, but the singer lacks charisma and :uk: in 4th place by the bookies is beyond me.
 

Looren

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Well there are many contenders this year

:gr: I think is winning

Then there are many songs like :ua: :se: :it: :nl: :pl: that are big contenders

Also many dark horses like :ee: :me: :no: and :fr:
 

ayzelto

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For me it's clearly between :ua: :se:

The first will smash the televote and the second will do well in both.

I don't think :nl: and :it: will get enough support from the televoters in order to win, but we will see.

Then we have :no: and :at:, which I think will do very well in the televote but flop in the juries. The opposite will happen to :pl: and :gr: I am afraid.

And finally, for those who mentioned :es:, I would love that to happen (it's time for this to happen), but I keep what I said in other occasions: she will be between 8th and 12th place in the Grand Final.
 
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