Honestly I thought they did a very good job with the running order, especially in the first semi. When I watched the videos it just made sense to me and I think that when we see the performances some choices that might not make sense now, will be better understood then. Remember the second half of the second semi last year, which on paper made zero sense but when you watched it, it was actually enjoyable and the transitions made sense?
However I've got to say that I still would rather see a shitty running order, that randomly done and is fairer for all competitors rather than seeing acts with less fans being dead on the arrival and the fan/betting odds favourites getting all the good spots. The results are just more exciting that way and you give a chance to all songs to prove themselves.
I don't think I can made many predictions yet, but there are some comments I have:
Semi Final 1
- Albania is an excellent opener for S1, I'm very happy that they got that place, it is very hard to imagine them NQing when the song stands out that much.
- When I saw Albania as an opener I expected Latvia to follow tbh. Both are uptempto but Latvia isn't so bombastic and doesn't have the ethnic flavour of Albania. Also 2nd in the semi isn't immediate death if you are good enough.
- Though far from my favourite, I'm glad Bulgaria wasn't murdered just because the fans don't like it.
- Moldova is getting top 15 in the final, that place is just sweet.
- When it got to the second half, I just felt it that Austria would be 13th. I don't have a good feeling for this tbh. It is after Denmark which will most likely keep the DMGP performance and it is a pretty energetic performance. It feels a bit like Romania last year who, if I'm not wrong, also performed 13th in S1.
- Armenia closing means that the probably have a fun performance. It is a bit like Denmark last year closing S2. It might not seem like a good idea now but I think it will make sense during the show.
For now, only based on the studio versions and fans preferences, I see either Greece or Ukraine winning S1. Norway got a very good RO, so I can see them second in televoting behind Ukraine. Portugal should do well with the juries but I fear that televoting won't help a lot. Should be enough to let the Q tho.
Semi Final 2
- Again great and a bit predictable choice for opener. They opened the show at UMK too, so they shouldn't have a problem.
- I know that #3 might be not ideal for Serbia but Russia performed at #4 last year and didn't hurt them. Serbia is very strong in televoting so I don't think it will affect it too much.
- 7/8 transition was one of my favourites for some reason, the difference between them w=in the video was huge and imo it helps both songs.
- Cyprus has probably a good staging, I just hope it isn't the usual staging they have since 2018, cause I really like the song. It is most likely easily qualifying.
- Ireland was kinda murdered? I don't know that's how I felt when I saw the video, that it doesn't stand a chance.
- 14/15 was a bit strange to me. I know that they aren't very similar but they are both from the more dynamic, closer to mid tempo, ballads and I thought that putting them next to each other was weird. Poland will probably benefit the most from this.
- Czechia closing reminds me of Latvia 2017 closing. Their live wasn't exactly good so I'm a bit afraid about this one's fate.
Right now, it is almost impossible for me to imagine someone else winning this semi other than Sweden. They were done a huge (unexpected if you ask me) favour and they are one of the few real fan favourites imo. The others need to pull something extraordinarily good to beat them and yet even if Sweden doesn't win televoting and/or jury voting I still see it winning the semi, the position is just that good for a song like this.