Who from Semi 1 and 2 will qualify?

[simori95]

I was inclined to put as a FFF but since it’s televote only its Q chances are pretty good since it’s in the Semi with , and . I guess these four countries (their audiences, respectively) will vote for each other the most and will all gather votes from these countries.

, and will vote for each other in first place(s), securing their spots in the final (which they probably did without voting for each other). Juries of a country tend to put favourites of the "opponents" lower than the televote does (which is more honest in this case unless… bought) so good for all of them we don’t have them in the semis.

So these seven countries are pretty much safe. The remaining songs fight for votes from a) Western Europe or b) Eastern Europe. Musical preferences are pretty different in both parts of Europe.

I can see Western televoters going for , Eastern probably . and will get the same amounts from both parts.

is the biggest loser that there are no juries; otherwise they‘d be in. doesn’t have UK or Australia in the semi who‘d vote for them. is a hopeless case unless people are touched by the "don’t wanna be a soldier" narrative and … oh well.

Interesting assessment. Based on my Personal taste, I hope you‘re right about some things and wrong about others personally, I will remain a bit worried about Czechia Although I definitely want them to qualify. And yeah, countrywise Malta really doesn’t look good, but I don’t think the juries would have helped that much. I will remain hopeful that it manages to get enough points though, albeit with middle results from many countries.

 

[WONESYG]

I am a Portugal fan at this point, so I hope they make it.

 

[heke1988]

First semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

Second semifinal:

Sure qualifiers:

Perhaps:

No change:

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Semi Final 2 is so up in the air, I could see it going a number of different ways. I feel like the only song that can really be written off is San Marino. I think the point difference around 10th place could be really small.

Solid:
Likely:
Borderline:
Unlikely:
No Chance:

Qualifiers:
NQs:

I could see Semi Final 2 surprising people more than the first semi. I think we're more likely to lose a song people are confident in qualifying in this semi. I think people are rightfully confident about what songs will qualify in the first semi, the biggest surprise I could see happening in the first semi is Latvia qualifying. Here though I feel like there's so many possible outcomes.

I'm not at all confident in these qualifiers tbh, especially around the 8th-13th area.

 

[MopManMoss]

With every day that passes I feel more and more that Serbia isn't going to make it

 

[lasse braun]

first semifinal forecast
final for sure:
very likely:
on the edge:
no real chance:

 

[Mainshow]

With every day that passes I feel more and more that Serbia isn't going to make it

The Serbian entry lacks a memorable and catchy hook, that guy can´t sing (it´s basically just noise, a few laughs and a lot of mumbling at this point) and that performance is a trainwreck. I can´t imagine non hardcore-ESC fans vote for it.
He would be "safe" in semi 2 but semi 1 is highly competitive... I don´t believe the general public will be voting for "a vibe" just because it´s "different" - Semi 1 is full of "very different and unique" soungs anyway.

 

[Mainshow]

My guess for semi 2:

100%






75%






50%




25%



0%

 

[12Pointsgoto.....]

The Serbian entry lacks a memorable and catchy hook, that guy can´t sing (it´s basically just noise, a few laughs and a lot of mumbling at this point) and that performance is a trainwreck. I can´t imagine non hardcore-ESC fans vote for it.
He would be "safe" in semi 2 but semi 1 is highly competitive... I don´t believe the general public will be voting for "a vibe" just because it´s "different" - Semi 1 is full of "very different and unique" soungs anyway.

I agree, I really do not see the appeal for Serbia this year. The entire song is just a lot of noise, and I know that it is a message song of some sorts, but it still has to sound good.

 

[midnightsun]

I would vote for Serbia but since I think it’s safe I‘m saving my votes for other countries. Probably. I’ll decide during the live show. Maybe I‘m wrong, well, then it may be so, but with Croatia in the same semi giving them most probably 12 points and countries like Moldova and Czechia going down the same lane of vibes with their entry I cannot see this not getting enough Q points in a televote only semi. I think a few calls are enough to be in a country‘s top 10.

 

[midnightsun]

Semi 2 Q's prediction

I could be completely wrong but I don’t think it’s too hard to predict, but we‘ll see.

Most probable qualifier:
They almost always qualify in the televote each year, diaspora votes also
only ballad and votes from Lithuania
people love the sweetness and also votes from Estonia
getting votes from Iceland and the Teenie vote and the global vote
Ukraine and Armenia are in the same semi; this alone should be enough
Ukraine and Georgia in the same semi are enough
Cyprus & Denmark in the same semi (his father is from Denmark)

Probably:
Rock and UK in the semi should do it
If it can live up to the hype it’s a sure qualifier but if people aren’t getting into it instantly I see a small chance not Q esp without D and CH in the final - but they have SL at least

The last Q is hard to predict. These are countries I consider borderline Q's:
Could be the FFF. They have a low q-rate but they have AT in the semi. Could be enough.
Getting votes from Denmark and probably some Western countries like UK
Maybe, with Greece in the semi but if he doesn’t nail it live it could be hard to q

Out:

 

[ati0111]

First prediction
Semi1
1.Finland
2.Sweden
3.Norway
These 3 are safe

4.Serbia: it stands out
5.Czechia: it can flop with a bad performance but likely qualifier
6.Moldova: they qualified with much worse, this is catchy, looks and sounds good
7.Croatia: you can hate it but it will be in the final
8.Israel: maybe I underrate this but I don't see it as a sure qualifier
9.Netherlands: I hope for a nice performance and then it can be a highlight of the night
10.Switzerland: not memorable enough but good voice and it can be the 10th qualifier

11.Latvia: without jury they will struggle to make it to the final, I hope I'm wrong though
12.Malta: fun song but not much chance
13.Portugal: I just don't see why would it make it
14.Azerbaijan: I hope they will have a Portugal2021 moment, but right now it seems unlikely
15.Ireland: basically no chance

 

[ati0111]

Semi2
Very likely
1.Austria
2.Slovenia
3.Armenia

Likely
4.Greece
5.Estonia
6.Belgium
7.Denmark
8.Georgia

Maybe
9.Cyprus
10.Iceland
11.Lithuania
12.Australia

Unlikely
13.Albania
14.Romania
15.Poland

No chance
16.San Marino