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Predictions : Grand Final

Looren

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August 10, 2020
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Agadir
Here we go ! We know the running order, we know the finalists

Let's predict the results :D
 

midnightsun

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February 26, 2016
Posts
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Location
Germany
I think there is no way Ukraine is not winning.

Jamala won in 2016 and it was "only" crimea but people fell for her background story and the same will happen tomorrow. And this is not criticism at all.
Everyone saying the ESC isn’t influenced by politics, personal issues, sob stories etc. is simply naive. It happens in every other year.

And calm down peeps, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have a chance to win without the war. The song is good and accessible and would most probably have scored well anyway! But as of now, winning is inevitable imho.

I'm trying to think who could be second. I'm ruling out Italy, Poland, The Netherlands & Spain for different reasons.

So we're looking for someone who is doing well in both the public and the juries. That means Sweden or UK. I go with Sweden because Eastern Europe is voting more in favor of Sweden than UK. Western Europe will be both equally.

So we have
1. :ua:
2. :se:
3. :uk:

Now come the songs that are doing both equally well in public and juries but not that high points as in the top 3. I‘m thinking of

4. :gr:
5. :rs:
6. :nl:
7. :pl:
8. :es:

Next ones are the songs that are doing extremely well in either jury or televote but relatively low with the other part.

9. :no:
10. :it:
11. :md:
12. :au:
13. :fi:
14. :ch:

Now the countries that will all get some jury and some televote points in the medium range.

15. :fr:
16. :cz:
17. :pt:
18. :ro:
19. :be:
20. :az:

Bottom 5
21. :lt:
22. :am:
23. :ee:
24. :is:
25. :de:
 

Dessi

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Joined
January 29, 2010
Posts
1,233
Location
Enecopia
Ukraine or Sweden is the winner 2022. But I want lovely, adorably Sam Ryan from the UK ... :love:
 

ayzelto

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February 10, 2010
Posts
2,652
Location
Barcelona
Prediction of top 10:

1. :ua: (tele top 3) (+500 points)
2. :se: (jury top 3) (+400 points)
3. :uk: (jury top 3) (+400 points)
4. :it: (+350 points)
5. :rs: (tele top 3) (+300 points)
6. :gr: (jury top 3) (+250 points)
7. :es: (+250 points)
8. :md: (tele top 3) (+225 points)
9. :pl: (+200 points)
10. :no: (+175 points)


SPLIT RESULTS:

Jury voting

1. :uk: +300 points
2. :se: +250 points
3. :gr: +200 points
4. :it: +200 points
5. :pl: +150 points
6. :nl: +150 points
7. :ua: +150 points
8. :az: +125 points
9. :au: +125 points
10. :es: +100 points

Jury flops: :rs: :md: :no: and to some extent :ee: and :fr:

Televote:

1. :ua: +350 points
2. :rs: +250 points
3. :md: +200 points
4. :no: +150 pionts
5. :se: +150 points
6: :es: +150 points
7. :it: +150 points
8. :uk: +100 points
9. :ee: +100 points
10. :fr: +100 points

Televote flops: :au: :az: and to some extent :gr: :pl: and :nl:

Bottom 5:

Last: :de:
24. :is:
23. :ch:
22. :lt:
21. :be:

The countries that I haven't mentioned in any of my rankings I haven't put them in the "flop" section, as I think they will be below 10th in both categories anyway.
 
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Zeus

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Joined
March 16, 2020
Posts
1,574
25. Germany
24. Iceland
23. Belgium
22. Armenia
21. Lithuania
20. Switzerland
19. Estonia
18. Romania
17. Azerbaijan
16. Finland
15. Portugal
14. Czech Republic
13. Australia
12. France
11. The Netherlands
10. Poland
9. Serbia
8. Moldova
7. Norway
6. Italy
5. Greece
4. Spain
3. UK
2. Sweden
1. Ukraine

Juries:
1. UK
2. Sweden
3. Italy
4. Ukraine
5. Greece / Australia

Televotes:
1. Ukraine
2. Spain
3. Sweden
4. Moldova
5. Norway / Serbia
 

GRE

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Joined
December 6, 2010
Posts
8,007
Location
Greece
:cz: Bottom 5 material
:ro: Bottom 5 material
:pt: Bottom 5 material
:fi: Around 15th-20th place
:fr: Around 15th place
:no: 8th-12th place
:am: Around 15th-20th place
:it: 6th-8th place
:es: Good televote, mediocre jury score
:nl: Around 15th place
:ua: top3
:de: bottom 5 material
:lt: Around 15th place
:az: Around 15th place
:be: Bottom 5 material
:gr: Extremely well in juries, enough well in public too, possible winner
:is: Around 20th place
:md: Very good televote, very bad jury score
:se: top5
:au: Around 15th place
:uk: top10
:pl: around 12th-15th place
:rs: good televote, bad jury score
:ee: Around 12th-15th place
 
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heke1988

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March 4, 2018
Posts
3,599
Location
Finland
This is not in order:

Places between 1-5:

:se::ua::uk::it::es:

Places between 6-10:

:no::rs::gr::nl::pl:

Places between 11-15:

:au::md::fr::ee::cz:

Places between 16-20:

:fi::az::pt::lt::am:

Places between 21-25:

:de::is::ro::ch::be:
 
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Chorizo

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May 9, 2014
Posts
4,251
Jury winner: :pl:
Televote winner: :ua:
Overall winner: :ua:

Last place: :de:

Top 10: :ua::se::pl::uk::it::rs::gr::md::es::no:
 
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GermanBango

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April 13, 2012
Posts
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Location
Hannover
So the day has come at last! Here we go ...

Jury
Top 10
:se: :it: :uk: :pl: :es: :au: :pt: :nl: :gr: :ua:
Bottom 5
:md: :de: :cz: :fi: :no:

Tele
Top 10
:ua: :se: :rs: :it: :no: :es: :md: :ro: :fi: :gr:
Bottom 5
:is: :au: :de: :be: :ch:

Overall Ranking
1 :se:
2 :it:
3 :ua:
4 :es:
5 :pl:

6 :uk:
7 :rs:
8 :gr:
9 :md:
10 :no:

11 :nl:
12 :au:
13 :pt:
14 :ro:
15 :is:
16 :ee:
17 :az:
18 :fi:
19 :am:

20 :fr:
21 :lt:
22 :ch:
23 :be:
24 :cz:
25 :de:
 
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Synergise

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Posts
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Location
United Kingdom
Final prediction:

Combined ScoreJury ScoreTelevote Score
1. UkraineUnited KingdomUkraine
2. SwedenSwedenMoldova
3. United KingdomUkraineSpain
4. SpainItalySweden
5. ItalyNetherlandsItaly
6. MoldovaSpainNorway
7. FranceGreeceSerbia
8. NetherlandsPortugalUnited Kingdom
9. NorwaySwitzerlandFrance
10. SerbiaLithuaniaNetherlands
11. GreeceFranceGreece
12. LithuaniaPolandLithuania
13. PolandAustraliaPoland
14. PortugalSerbiaEstonia
15. AustraliaBelgiumArmenia
16. ArmeniaCzech RepublicRomania
17. SwitzerlandArmeniaAzerbaijan
18. EstoniaNorwayCzech Republic
19. Czech RepublicEstoniaFinland
20. BelgiumAzerbaijanPortugal
21. AzerbaijanFinlandIceland
22. RomaniaRomaniaAustralia
23. FinlandMoldovaGermany
24. IcelandIcelandBelgium
25. GermanyGermanySwitzerland
 

RainyWoods

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February 9, 2012
Posts
25,202
Location
London
01. :ua: 02. :es: 03. :se: 04. :it: 05. :no: 06. :md: 07. :nl: 08. :pl: 09. :gr: 10. :rs:

11. :uk: 12. :fi: 13. :ee: 14. :ro: 15. :au: 16. :pt: 17. :cz: 18. :ch: 19. :lt: 20. :fr:

21. :is: 22. :az: 23. :be: 24. :am: 25. :de:


Taking a bit of a gamble with Moldova. This country works in mysterious ways at the contest and they pretty much have the best position in this final coming after AND then being followed by so many slower, more downbeat songs. I think Ukraine beats Salvaor's record, winning both the public and jury vote with ease. My boldest predictions are UK not reaching the top 10 (I think our points will be Malta-esque) and France way underperforming to fan expectations, finishing somewhere in the 20s.
 

Jim

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Joined
March 27, 2010
Posts
7,198
Location
Greece
01 Spain
02 Greece
03 Ukraine
04 Italy
05 United Kingdom
06 Sweden
07 Poland
08 Moldova
09 Serbia
10 Azerbaijan
11 Estonia
12 Belgium
13 Norway
14 The Netherlands
15 France
16 Australia
17 Portugal
18 Iceland
19 Lithuania
20 Czech Republic
21 Armenia
22 Germany
23 Finland
24 Romania
25 Switzerland
 

heke1988

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Joined
March 4, 2018
Posts
3,599
Location
Finland
This is not in order:

Places between 1-5:

:se::ua::uk::it::es:

Places between 6-10:

:no::rs::gr::nl::pl:

Places between 11-15:

:au::md::fr::ee::cz:

Places between 16-20:

:fi::az::pt::lt::am:

Places between 21-25:

:de::is::ro::ch::be:
So I got 12/25 right.
 

Chorizo

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Joined
May 9, 2014
Posts
4,251
Jury winner: :pl:
Televote winner: :ua:
Overall winner: :ua:

Last place: :de:

Top 10: :ua::se::pl::uk::it::rs::gr::md::es::no:

I was right about Ukraine and Germany and apart from Poland and Spain my top 10 looks pretty good as well.

:ua: (=)
:se: (+2)
:pl: (+9)
:uk: (-2)
:it: (+1)
:rs: (-1)
:gr: (+1)
:md: (-1)
:es: (-6)
:no: (=)

I completely overestimated Ochman. I should have known better. The running order already indicated that Poland was not doing that well in the semi-final. I think the staging cost him many jury points. There was too much going on in an effort to make a static performance look more interesting, but that approach didn't work very well.

I was surprised by Spain doing so well and didn't expect that at all. Especially Spain's success in the jury vote came as a surprise to me.
 
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Himan

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Joined
March 16, 2018
Posts
1,881
1 :ua: big winner obviously (=)
2 :uk: it's close for 2nd and 3rd in my eyes(=)
3 :it: can both attract votes from juries and televotes(-3)
4 :es: might be a bit lower televotes(+1)
5 :se: lot of countries can take 'their' jury points, won't do that good with televotes(+1)
6 :rs: lots of Balkan points, some surprise points from Western juries(+1)
7 :md: same as :rs: though I think without the surprise points(=)
8 :nl: 5th with juries also points from Western Tele's(-4)
9 :pl: falls a bit in the middle of everything(-3)
10 :cz: the fun opener(like Belgium 2016)(-12)
11 :no: Not a lot of jury points,5th with tele's(Spain, UK, Ukraine, Italy will take those points)(+1)
12 :gr: top 8 with juries but falls away a bit(+4)
13 :pt: same as :gr: without :cy: points...(+4)
14 :fr: some points from their neighbors(-10)
15 :ee: same as France(+2)
16 :is: some Nordic Juries and teles(-8)
17 :au: some western jury points(+2)
18 :ro: some southern tele's/juries(=)
19 :fi: some Nordic/Baltic televotes(-2)
20 :az: maybe some jury points?(+4)
21 :lt: definite Baltic points.(+7)
22 :am: don't know, but more than 3 points.(+2)
23 :be: 2 points from French jury. 1 from Dutch Televote(+4)
24 :ch: 1 point from German juries(+7)
25 :de: 0 points(=)

:ua: wins the juries and the televotes with a landslide which can make the bottom a bit weird.
Not a bad prediction in my eyes.
 

Navn Navnes

Well-known member
Joined
February 6, 2022
Posts
507
Jury
1 Italy (-6)
2 Greece(-4)
3 Sweden (+1)
4 UK(+3)
5 Portugal(=)
6 Poland(-8)
7 Ukraine(+3)
8 Netherlands(=)
9 Spain(+6)
10 Lithuania(-8)
11 Australia(+2)
12 France(-12:mad:)
13 Belgium((=)
14 Azerbaijan(+4)
15 Iceland(-8:()
16 Switzerland(+4)
17 Finland(-5)
18 Serbia(+7)
19 Czech Republic(=)
20 Estonia(+5)
21 Armenia(+5)
22 Moldova(+2)
23 Norway(+6)
24 Germany(-1)
25 Romania(+4)

Televote
1 Ukraine(=)
2 France(-17:mad:)
3 Moldova(+1)
4 Norway(-3)
5 Serbia(+1)
6 Finland(-10:confused:)
7 Spain(+4)
8 UK(+3)
9 Italy(+1)
10 Sweden(+4)
11 Czech Republic(-11)
12 Poland(+3)
13 Estonia(+3)
14 Portugal(-1:confused:)
15 Australia(-9)
16 Netherlands(+2)
17 Romania(+4)
18 Lithuania(+7:))
19 Greece(+7)
20 Armenia(+3)
21 Iceland(+3:))
22 Belgium(+1)
23 Switzerland(-2)
24 Azerbaijan(+1)
25 Germany(+5)

Overall
1 Ukraine(=)
2 Italy(-6)
3 France(-21:mad:)
4 UK(+2)
5 Moldova(-2)
6 Sweden(+2)
7 Norway(-3)
8 Spain(+5)
9 Finland(-12:()
10 Portugal(+1:love:)
11 Poland((-1)
12 Serbia(+7)
13 Greece(+5)
14 Netherlands(+3)
15 Czech Republic(-7)
16 Australia(+1)
17 Estonia(+4)
18 Lithuania(+4:))
19 Iceland(-4:()
20 Belgium((+1)
21 Azerbaijan(+5)
22 Armenia(+2)
23 Romania(+5)
24 Switzerland(+7)
25 Germany(=)

Personal top 25
1 Portugal(-8)
2 Finland(-19:()
3 France(-21:mad:)
4 Ukraine(+3)
5 Moldova(-2)
6 Lithuania(-8)
7 Netherlands(-4)
8 Iceland(-15:()
9 Serbia(+4)
10 UK(+8)
11 Italy(+5)
12 Poland(=)
13 Spain(+10)
14 Norway(+4)
15 Czech Republic(-7)
16 Greece(+8)
17 Australia(+2)
18 Belgium(-1)
19 Estonia(+6)
20 Armenia(=)
21 Switzerland (+4)
22 Romania(+4)
23 Sweden(+19:()
24 Azerbaijan(+8:()
25 Germany(=)
Jury, 110 points wrongness. 4 countries correct placement
Televote, 110 points of wrongness. Only Ukraine correct
Overall, 110 points of wrongness . The easy predictions of first and last correct

Fairly awful predictions

Overall happiness with the result 170 spots of my personal top 25, but i expected something like that. Agreed completely with the placements of Poland, Armenia and Germany.
 
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Bobjan FR

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Joined
December 11, 2021
Posts
828
Jury, 110 points wrongness. 4 countries correct placement
Televote, 103 points of wrongness. Only Ukraine correct
Overall, 111 points of wrongness . The easy predictions of first and last correct

Fairly awful predictions

Overall happiness with the result 170 spots of my personal top 25, but i expected something like that. Agreed completely with the placements of Poland, Armenia and Germany.

You may have done some mistakes, because it's mathematically impossible to get scores that are odd numbers by doing this. So the 103 and 111 you calculated are wrong...
 
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