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IN IT TO WIN IT GAME

Realest

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Germany
Likely Winners: :ee: :az: :at: :bg: :cy: :se:
 

Ezio

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January 29, 2017
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Loin d'ici
Add: :pt:
 

Ezio

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Loin d'ici
In for the win:

:au: :fr: :it: :be: :ru: :pl: :pt: and I hope :at:

Maybe:
:de: (some good candidates) :se: (if the semis 3 and 4 get better) :nl: (if Waylon improves relability) :al: (has growing potential)

No-nos:
:es: :uk: :dk: :mt: :ch: :cz: (the latter are not bad, but not winner material)
:ee: (La Forza Infernale)
 

tsegaye

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March 1, 2014
Posts
1,637
IN IT TO WIN ITxheya
:cy::fi::nl::se::be::bg::ee:
:fr::au::az::at:
:hr::ge::ie::mk::ru:

Won't win itxboring
:pl: (NEW) No winning material here.

I feel that we're getting closer really fast now, soon maybe some want to take a guess and be the first one locking in their answer? ;)
 

randajad

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Joined
March 4, 2011
Posts
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Very likely to win — :at::az::be::bg::se::it:
Likely to win — :ee::pl::au::nl:
Hard, but it could happen — :cy::ru::fr::no::cz::ie::ch:
They might have a chance, but probably won’t win — :mt::pt::dk::am::hu::il:
Most likely not — :gr::md::ge::me::rs::ua::ro::by::sl::lv:
No way Hose — :al::fi::hr::mk::is::sm::es::uk::de:
 

randajad

Veteran
Joined
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Posts
7,895
Very likely to win — :at::be::bg::se::it:
Likely to win — :ee::pl::au::nl::cy::cz:
Hard, but it could happen — :ru::fr::no::ie::ch::pt::hu:
Most likely not — :gr::md::ge::me::rs::ua::ro::by::sl::lv::il::am::az::dk:
No way Hose — :al::fi::hr::mk::is::sm::es::uk::de::mt:
 

tsegaye

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Posts
1,637
Won't win itxboring
:be: (NEW) Really thought I would have it left in my final list, but it's too weak to be in the race for the win unfortunately :(

Really sad to see it go down to the won't win it-list :( Soon we will have all songs, don't forget to send me your final lists when you feel ready!
 

lavieenrose

Albania Superstar
Joined
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Posts
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Phoenix, AZ / Oovoo Javer
I'll give this a try! :D

IN IT TO WIN IT
:al: :bg: :cz: :ee: :il: :am: :cy: :gr: :au: :nl: :ru: :ge: :mt: :se: :fr: :de: :ch:

STILL HAPPY THEY'RE HERE BUT NOT IN IT TO WIN IT
:az: :by: :be: :is: :lt: :fi: :dk: :md: :ro: :sm: :rs: :hu: :lv: :me: :pl: :sl: :ua: :it: :pt: :es: :uk: :hr: :ie: :mk: :at: :no:
 

FilipFromSweden

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March 27, 2012
Posts
6,658
Love the idea! I agree that one should be free to switch between the win/won’t win list until March 31st is over!

- In it to win it:

:se: :be: :au: :ru: :bg: :no:

- updated 5th of March

Removed Armenia and Hungary
 

Chorizo

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Joined
May 9, 2014
Posts
4,251
In it to win it:
:be::cz::ee:

Maybe:
:am::cy::fi::fr::it:

Unknown:
:at::bg::hr::ie::il::lt::mk::au::ge::no::se::ru:

Won't win it:
:al::az::by::ch::de::dk::es::gr::hu::is::lv::md::me::mt::nl::pl::pt::ro::rs::sl::sm::ua::uk:
 

tsegaye

Well-known member
Joined
March 1, 2014
Posts
1,637
REMINDER! If you DON'T send you final list to me via PM, I'll use your latest updated version of your list on 1/4, so don't forget to send it to me before!! Otherwise you'll probably have a very small chance of winning this competition ;)
 

tsegaye

Well-known member
Joined
March 1, 2014
Posts
1,637
IN IT TO WIN ITxheya
:hu: - BACK IN THE LIST!
Won't win itxboring
:au::hr::cy:(NEW) Really thought I would have it left in my final list, but it's too weak to be in the race for the win :(

(edited 6/3)

If they get the momentum I really think Hungary can success with their unique approach to this contest this year, I think it's a matter of if the juries will appreciate it.
 

Realest

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May 23, 2017
Posts
7,483
Location
Germany
:at: vs :bg:
 

FilipFromSweden

Well-known member
Joined
March 27, 2012
Posts
6,658
Love the idea! I agree that one should be free to switch between the win/won’t win list until March 31st is over!

- In it to win it:

:se: :be: :ru: :bg: :no:

- updated 7th of March

Removed Australia. Funny how the only country on my list that has chosen a song is Belgium!
 

Alaska49

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Joined
April 18, 2013
Posts
2,895
IN IT TO WIN IT
belgium, bulgaria, estonia, france, finland, hungary, netherlands, portugal, serbia

I HAVE NO IDEA HOW THIS WILL BE RECEIVED
armenia, austria, azerbaijan, belarus, croatia, cyprus, czech republic, denmark, germany, greece, israel, italy, latvia, malta, moldova, norway, poland, slovenia, spain, sweden, ukraine

DEAD ON ARRIVAL
albania, australia, georgia, iceland, ireland, lithuania, macedonia, montenegro, switzerland, romania, russia, san marino, united kingdom


is it mean that i have georgia, ireland and macedonia as dead before the entries are out? i am just assuming on their recent history lol. i'd love to be wrong. also yulia samoylova isn't winning even a school raffle.
 

Chorizo

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Joined
May 9, 2014
Posts
4,251
Update:

In it to win it:
:be::cz:

Maybe:
:cy::fi:

Unknown:
:at::bg::ie::il::lt::mk::ge::no::se::ru:

Won't win it:
:al::az::by::ch::de::dk::es::gr::hu::is::lv::md::me::mt::nl::pl::pt::ro::rs::sl::sm::ua::uk::ee::am::fr::it::hr::au:

Out:
:ee: It's one of the favorites to win at the moment if the bookies can be believed but I doubt that the genre will appeal enough to both juries and the audience for it to win.
:am::fr::it::hr::au: Either the song is too weak or the genre doesn't have enough mainstream appeal.
 

ZoboCamel

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Joined
May 18, 2012
Posts
4,521
Location
Melbourne, Australia
Time for an update to my previous post! Lots of stuff has moved around. As a reminder:


The Top Contenders looks at songs which I think are our current front-runners;

The Dark Horses are generally the songs that look promising, but haven't given us much to work with yet, or have some larger flaws;

The Stragglers refers to countries that I'm close to discounting, but want to wait for any surprises from; and finally,

Won't Win It are those that, well, won't win it, barring a miracle or some kind of massive surprise.


Below, I've updated my comments for every country that's given us substantial new info over the last month (i.e. everyone bar a small handful); eliminated one category ("The Unknowns", since we've got a lot more info now), and put an extra 17 songs down into "Won't Win It". With 6 of my remaining 13 songs being stuff we don't know yet, I should be able to write off another bunch in a week or so, and then it's just a matter of risk assessment to decide what's worth keeping in my top list. Here's how things look for now:




In It To Win It: The Top Contenders
:bg: Bulgaria - Bulgaria's track record & effort are promising, as are the murmurs from the internal jury panel, which is mentioning a big stand-out.
:ee: Estonia - There's a handful of issues here (over-acting in parts; juries; a slow-ish second verse), but this is way too impactful to discount.
:fi: Finland - The live may need some polish, but this is big, bombastic, uplifting pop in a year where little else is. I think it could surprise.
:il: Israel - Netta's looper could be the year's winning gimmick, and the Doron-composed song sounds promising. Need to actually hear it first, though.
:se: Sweden - Melfest has turned out to be weaker than usual, but in a year lacking frontrunners I don't want to rule out Sweden's efforts just yet.


In It To Win It: The Dark Horses
:am: Armenia - Strong, but hasn't yet got the positive reaction I'd expected, and staging is a question. Will keep an eye on this a little longer.
:au: Australia - It's Eurovision-by-numbers, smells like jury bait and has staging potential. Perhaps too anonymous and lacking in development, though.
:dk: Denmark - Accessible pop + strong, unique twist = a recipe for Eurovision success. Live performance and jury scores are the big questions here.
:hu: Hungary - A massive question mark. This could quite easily NQ, but on the other hand it's unique, hugely impactful and inspires strong reactions.
:ru: Russia - Though I struggle to see Yulia as a winner, it's Russia, and they may not have been trying too hard last time. I'll wait for the song.
:nl: The Netherlands - A clear standout, and should do well. Feels like a top 5-10 entry, not a winner, but I want some more time to think on this.


In It To Win It: The Stragglers
:mk: FYR Macedonia - Macedonia struggles even in their best years, but we've got nothing to go off so far this year. Will give them some time.
:ie: Ireland - From what we've heard? Probably not. I'd like to hear the song first, though, since what we know isn't much to go off.




Won't Win It
:al: Albania - A revamp could improve Mall, but not to winner-level. Plus, Albania's staging has been weak lately.
:hr: Croatia - As previously expected, the internal selection wasn't quite strong enough. Not many people with strong opinions on this one.
:cz: Czech Republic - May do better than I'd first thought, but I've put it down here and still have uncertainties, so I'm reluctantly keeping it here.
:fr: France - Will struggle to have enough impact musically, despite powerful lyrics. France has missed the podium in 2016-17 with stronger entries.
:ge: Georgia - Artists can change their style for Eurovision, but only so much. This one seems destined for an NQ.
:is: Iceland - A bad choice from an already-weak NF. If big, well-staged, rousing peace ballads from Russia haven't won before, this won't either.
:lv: Latvia - I can see this having its fans. However, I doubt there are nowhere near enough of said fans to make this win.
:mt: Malta - Eye-catching staging and catchy sections can only do so much to hide the fact that this doesn't have a winner's impact.
:md: Moldova - If we're talking mid-2000s Eurovision, then perhaps. Here, I think its real challenge will be reaching the final.
:no: Norway - Rybak's charisma could potentially propel his mediocre song to a decent spot, if he wins MGP, but there's clearly no winner here.
:pt: Portugal - Better than I'd expected, but no back-to-back here. Despite positive forum reactions, this isn't attention-grabbing like Salvador.
:ro: Romania - I can see this having more fans than most are expecting, but that still doesn't bring it anywhere near a top spot.
:ch: Switzerland - While I think Stones could surprise a lot of people with a decent finish, I'm predicting more of a mid-teens position, not a win.


New

:at: Austria - Strong staging potential and moments of brilliance, but that chorus doesn't shout "Eurovision winner" to me.
:az: Azerbaijan - A marginally weaker version of Australia, and without so much potential for staging. I'll mark this as a no-chance, albeit barely.
:by: Belarus - Should do well with Eastern televoters, but I don't think the juries and Eastern countries will award it highly enough.
:be: Belgium - I think the juries will love this, and televote could like it, but it may need more impact. Borderline top 10?
:cy: Cyprus - Even in a year lacking upbeat dance bangers so far, the effective lack of a chorus should stop this from reaching the podium.
:de: Germany - Michael's safe-but-emotional pop ballad looks like a formula for success, but I'm not sure it's got the wow-factor for a win.
:gr: Greece - Should really come alive on stage. That said, Armenia only got 18th last year with a similar package, and I'm not sure about televotes.
:it: Italy - Beautiful and powerful, but conveying the message across languages may prove difficult. A massive grower; not so strong on first listen.
:lt: Lithuania - Whatever wins the NF, I don't think it'll have the power to continue on to a Eurovision win.
:me: Montenegro - I don't see this succeeding where plenty of stronger Balkan ballads have failed.
:pl: Poland - Yes, it's immediate and contemporary, but it sounds like plenty of other songs this year. Likely too anonymous to challenge.
:sm: San Marino - A very niche, very San Marino entry after a trainwreck of an NF. In other words, a huge "no chance" sign in glowing neon lights.
:rs: Serbia - Despite being probably the best choice they could've made at Beovizija, it's messy and lacks a memorable hook.
:sl: Slovenia - Contemporary, well-staged and unique, but I just can't see it having enough widespread appeal with either juries or televoters.
:es: Spain - Could still place well, but I'm of the opinion that the revamp has harmed its chances at a win.
:ua: Ukraine - This should be a top 10, but barring spectacular staging and some flops from other contenders, I don't think it can reach the top spot.
:uk: United Kingdom - I can't fault the UK public for choosing Storm after those NF performances, but it's coming nowhere near first at ESC.
 

Chorizo

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Joined
May 9, 2014
Posts
4,251
Update 2:

In it to win it:
:be::cz::se:

Maybe:
:cy::fi::at::bg:

Unknown:
:ge:

Won't win it:
:al::az::by::ch::de::dk::es::gr::hu::is:
:lv::md::me::mt::nl::pl::pt::ro::rs::sl:
:sm::ua::uk::ee::am::fr::it::hr::au::il:
:ie::lt::mk::no::ru:

Out:
:il: It's the number 1 in the odds now but it's highly unlikely that the juries will let a song that features the clucking of chickens win Eurovision.
Too weak or not enough mainstream appeal: :ie::lt::mk::no::ru:
 
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