Many have talked about what they think are the flops and dark horses, the possible surprises, but one variant is forgotten every year: the old generation. This generation, a substantial mass in an increasingly older Europe, which follows the ESC as an occasional spectator often subverts the predictions of the Bubble extremists. Their vote is not unpredictable. We know more or less what he likes. In fact, I don't understand how many can shout about the success of Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Greece or high positions for Ireland which will get a handful of votes from this audience. Now, each of us has tastes, sometimes unique in our own way, but the YouTuber's grandmother has shown us more or less who will get approval and the prince of the older generation is Slimane (who, if he doesn't fail, may also have the support of the juries). Ukraine and Italy prove to be super dangerous because they are able to conquer new generation, old generation, members of the Bubble and juries. Norway, as I have always said, is the greatest dark horse in Eurovisual history. Among many powerful horses in the race, the Norwegian one could even win by surprise. "Ulveham" is a qualitative, epic, vocally powerful song, with excellent staging, which knows how to be accepted by the older generation (!) but also a "convenience winner" (the one who knows how to make itself hated the least). When we take all the elements into consideration, going beyond our tastes and beliefs, we may be surprised by a prediction.
Croatia certainly won't flop but they won't achieve what many believe. Switzerland will collapse, Greece will follow a path balanced between average and disaster. Israel will not fly but will do well. Sweden will land on its feet as always. Italy, Ukraine and Norway and who knows Belgium will play for the title. The Netherlands probably won't win the "crazy sounds battle". Serbia is a solid song that will do well but nothing more. Etc...
Before concluding, pay attention to Portugal. From the older generation and from the juries he can take some points. Even if Fado is too niche a genre for me (here if I'm not mistaken mixed with a pinch of Pop) "Grito" isn't dead from the start.
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With everyone talking about Gaza. I could see a lot of people vote for Israel because they want to show Propalestina people a message. Could easy ending up in top 3 in televoting.
