But Basim was not the artist people wanted/got excited about
The odds didn't drop till days after it was known that Basim would be there.
Demark has improved a lot but compared to other NF's, it's still kinda vanilla (different shades of pop), a bit dated and I seriously can't see any of these tracks finishing Top 10 at all.
I'm not sure I agree that Denmark "has improved a lot". I think 2023 was more interesting than this one in many ways - certainly it was more diverse, in fact, probably one of the most diverse of all national selections that year (considering there was only 8 entries). The main problem in the end was that the Danish Melodi Grand Prix viewers didn't pick the song with most Eurovision potential (which was Eyjaa's).
Instead they chose one of the most modern (or "non-dated") songs of all songs in Liverpool. For various reasons it didn't do well. By the way, I don't think there is clear evidence that very modern songs are successful at Eurovision.
Again in 2024, the Danish NF has a Tiktok song - I don't think many other NF's have that. So no, I don't agree that the selection is "a bit dated". To make a comparison, I think the Eastern European NF's in general sound dated. The same goes for Portugal, for instance, where there seems to be no development at all. That may have its own charm, of course.
But Denmark's NF does have plenty of so-called radio-friendly pop this year. This reflects that the organizer insists on a strong connection between Melodi Grand Prix and the organizer's radio. You can argue that this strategy is wrong - international Eurovision fans might do that in particular, as they don't listen to Danish radio.
I think it makes sense in many ways, though. Dansk Melodi Grand Prix is one of the oldest still existing TV programmes in Denmark, and it shouldn't be reduced to just a matter of finding the best candidate for Europe. At the same time, I like the idea of the organizers supporting Danish songwriters, instead of buying stuff from abroad, as was done a lot in the late 2000's and in the 2010's.
The problem, however, is that the listeners of the channel which Melodi Grand Prix is "associated with" are quite different from the people in other countries that watch Eurovision. So we're dealing with a set of interests that don't seem to fit together here.
From a more narrow musical approach, Denmark's previous successes were often based on the songwriting from Lise Cabble. Take her out of Denmark's Eurovision history since the 1990's, and you'll see how much worse it could have looked. Unfortunately, she hasn't participated for several years (correct me if I'm wrong, but her latest entry might be "Human" from 2020).
Also, odds are quite fragile at this point. Utterly poisoned by "politics" and we haven't even heard half of the "potential" entries and I believe that there aren't many ppl betting on ESC at this point (it will increase when more entries are known).
Yes. And throughout the 2020's the bookmakers have been rating Denmark quite high from the outset of the competitions. Even though it's been four years since Denmark had a potential top 10 candidate. Maybe they regard Denmark's bad streak as a result of bad luck - which I can sort of follow, tbh. Coincidence does play a role here.