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Betting Odds 2023

Realest

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May 23, 2017
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We have the first Odds this Year.

1Ukraine22%33.252.88
2Italy8%87.510
3United Kingdom7%781114
4Sweden6%111011
5Spain4%171517
6Norway4%171520
7France4%171719
8Greece3%191724
9Poland3%191725
10Switzerland3%212121
11Australia3%212124
12Serbia2%263421
13Belgium2%263427
14Azerbaijan2%344128
15Netherlands2%414120
16Finland2%414125
17Armenia2%415130
18Germany1%515125
19Iceland1%515126
20Ireland1%515130
21Portugal1%675124
22San Marino1%675134
23Lithuania1%676726
24Estonia1%678128
25Cyprus1%678130
26Slovenia1%1018132
27Latvia1%1018134
28Austria1%10110129
28Czech Republic1%10110129
28Denmark1%10110129
31Croatia1%10110132
32Israel artist: Noa Kirel1%2016728
33Moldova1%20110122
34Malta1%20110130
35Romania<1%20115128
36Montenegro<1%20115136
37Bulgaria<1%20120129
38Albania<1%20120132
38North Macedonia<1%20120132
40Georgia<1%20120134
 

StephenMuckle

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October 8, 2020
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Having a favourite with this short odds 22% chance of victory is unheard of. Especially when we don't even know the final line up of countries never mind any songs yet. Just shows what is driving it and that people think it's not going to be a proper contest.
 

esc87fan

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April 21, 2013
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Canada
We only have one artist, no songs, no host city and no dates. It's still way too early to be making predictions
 

NemesisNick

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Don't take a blind bit of notice of the odds yet. The list of countries is currently identical to what took part in the ESC 2022. How do the bookies know the exact same 40 countries will take part in 2023? The EBU hasn't published the final list of countries which intend to take part in ESC 2023 yet.

The semi-final allocation draw, which presumably will be late January 2023, will drastically reduce the possible combinations of 20 countries that can qualify to the ESC 2023 Grand Final, because there has to be 10 from each semi-final (you can't have, for example, 15 songs from one semi-final and 5 songs from another).

The odds are meaningless until the middle of March, by which time all countries have chosen (and in some cases revamped) their artists and songs, and submitted their Eurovision versions of their entries to the EBU.
 

Brandt

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December 27, 2014
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One of other examples how Ukraine only won because of sympathy votes and not actually due to the song. But there will always be Ukrainians online claiming that it would have won even if they weren’t the victim of Russian attacks. Because their song is objectively perfect so perfect that it can grant 10 years of victories and it would still not be sympathy vote 🤡
 

Mainshow

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A few bookies (mostly from the UK) placing money on songs which haven´t been released so far should be proof for "Stefania"´s victory?
Two days ago, they also placed money on countries which didn´t even announce their participation, we don´t know any of the songs and it´s just natural that countries which placed high in recent/the last edition(s) are on top of the betting odds at this stage.

Austria 2014 didn´t win "because the song is objectively perfect". Russia 2008 didn´t win "because the song is objectively perfect". Sweden 2015 didn´t win "because the song is objectively perfect". Portugal 2017 didn´t win "because the song is objectively perfect".

Music is a way to transfer and evoke emotions and it just happens that a good entry ("Stefania") was "elevated" by the current circumstances - it´s not like Ukraine sent "Have Some Fun" or "Aven Romale" and won the contest all of a sudden.

Most fans (of "Stefania") totally acknowledge the existence of inflated televoting scores but the betting odds right now are just "proof" that a few (British) bookies take geopolitical factors as well as the recent rankings of certain countries into account. That´s it.
 

hijirio

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it´s not like Ukraine sent "Have Some Fun" or "Aven Romale" and won the contest all of a sudden.

“Have some fun” real winner of 2008 xcheer xcheer xcheer
 

Realest

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Ireland gained lots of Momentum it seems.


1Ukraine Tvorchi - Heart of Steel19%3.532.8844.53334.85.4
2Sweden9%87886.59776.87.2
3Italy8%9899910881112
4United Kingdom7%9789139991819
5Ireland4%17211121171317172021
6France artist: La Zarra4%17171921151517171617
7Spain4%23171721211517172325
8Norway3%26191917211517172527
9Australia3%23212117212621212022
10Poland3%26191926262119193842
11Netherlands artists: Mia Nicolai & Dion Cooper3%21343426172619192021
12Armenia3%26171926234126263438
13Greece3%29262126411721213842
14Belgium2%21343434233429292426
15Switzerland2%34292626343426264044
16Israel artist: Noa Kirel2%34342634264134342628
17Serbia2%34343434344134345565
18Azerbaijan2%41343434415141413640
19Lithuania2%34515167265141412426
20Finland1%51514167414141413640
21Iceland1%51512951515151514650
22Germany1%51515167515151513034
23Cyprus artist: Andrew Lambrou1%67516767416751512729
24Estonia1%345167101418151513034
25Portugal1%51676767516751514650
26Latvia1%8167671015181676790100
27Denmark1%67101101101766767671510
28San Marino1%101676710110151676790100
29Czech Republic1%1011011011011016767671514
30Moldova1%10110167101678181815565
31Croatia1%101101101101816767678595
32Malta1%10167811018110181817585
33Austria1%1016710110115110181811920
34Slovenia artist: Joker Out1%10110110110110181818190100
35Romania<1%15120120110110115115115190100
36Georgia<1%20120120110120115120120190100
37Albania Albina & Familja Kelmendi - Duje<1%201201201101201201201201130150
 

Realest

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Schlagerman1

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I find it weird that Norway and Estonia in particular is higher ranked on the odds. Sure, their NFs aren't finished yet, anything can still happen, but if I was a betting person and wanted to earn some good money from Eurovision, I would place on both those two. Ulrikkes and Ollies songs are strong enough to fight for a top 5 place in the contest and potentially win.
 

njdevils94

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June 16, 2018
Posts
6,376
I find it weird that Norway and Estonia in particular is higher ranked on the odds. Sure, their NFs aren't finished yet, anything can still happen, but if I was a betting person and wanted to earn some good money from Eurovision, I would place on both those two. Ulrikkes and Ollies songs are strong enough to fight for a top 5 place in the contest and potentially win.
Norway because of Ulrikke and Estonia because of Alika. Both very strong favorites to win their respective national finals.
 

StephenMuckle

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Posts
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Location
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Ukraine's lead at the top of the betting odds is slowly decreasing. I wonder if there isn't as much market confidence in them winning or has there just been an early flurry of bets elsewhere, like Sweden?
 

Mainshow

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Ukraine's lead at the top of the betting odds is slowly decreasing. I wonder if there isn't as much market confidence in them winning or has there just been an early flurry of bets elsewhere, like Sweden?

(British) bookies start to realise that winning ESC last year =/= winning the next year.
It has always been like that (that the winner of the previous year gets a huge boost together with the likes of Sweden, Russia and usually, also Ukraine).
I mean.. just look at :uk: - they are usually a bit higher than they should be (British bookies outnumber other people betting on it, e.g. it´s even forbidden to bet on cultural events here in Germany) and fans believe that there´s some sort of tendency towardds "betting on your own entry/country"... I mean, how is :uk: being Top 5 for weeks/months justified? Sam Ryder delivered a phenomenal performance and finished #2 but that was the one and only Top 10 finish of the :uk: in the last 13 (!!!!!) years - if we just take Top 10 placings into account, :uk: would be one of the least successful countries in Eurovision.. and here we are.. seeing :uk: being part of the betting odds Top 5 - Bookies are simply guided by the preceding year´s results and since Ukraine got such massive televoting points, it´s still on top... but slowly decreasing because "Heart Of Steel" might be getting a good rank but it´s not as instant/competitive as "Stefania".

Also, there was a long period of not knowing any other entries - even NF songs - apart from Ukraine, Albania and the snippets of Beligum but suddenly, apart from 5 remaining countries (Sweden, Italy, San Marino, Poland, Serbia) fans got to hear ALL national final songs and therefore, bookies can react.

The Ukrainian entry "Heart of Steel" isn´t as competitive as "Stefania" and even though some still might think that Ukraine will be getting support by televoters due to "war and solidarity effects", they might start to think that "Heart Of Steel" is not strong enough to win with some additional support.
We haven´t heard the revamped version, though but :cz: and :fi: are currently rising and I believe that depending on Vesna´s performance tonight (at the Czech NF), Ukraine´s lead might be decreasing further.
 

Mainshow

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30th January, 2023winning
chance
BET365SKY
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COOL
BET
LAD
BROKES
COMEON888
SPORT
10BETWILLIAM
HILL
*SMARKETSBET
FRED
BETSSONBETFAIR*
EXCHANGE
1Ukraine Tvorchi - Heart of Steel16%5.544.5444.344.33.756.244.256.2
2Sweden10%6.576.5676.56.56.56.57.476.57.8
3Italy7%11109111110910101391014
4Finland7%911111013912991191011
5United Kingdom5%1513131413151315101891217
6France artist: La Zarra4%19171717171815181520171522
7Spain3%21151923212117211726211828
8Australia3%21212620212121212121172023
9Netherlands artists: Mia Nicolai & Dion Cooper3%21211719342117212120262021
10Norway3%31212121212121212128171730
11Israel Noa Kirel - Unicorn3%21262319172123212122262024
12Ireland3%34172131212121211136212040
13Lithuania3%41261519192615262660211770
14Armenia3%29342623212926292126262528
15Poland2%34263434293426341930263034
16Switzerland2%34343431293434342630263034
17Czech Republic2%114115164111341151151013510
18Greece2%41345141343434342146263050
19Estonia2%34212631513441346732264036
20Serbia2%41672681414134413436344040
21Portugal1%41513434674151416738346042
22Germany1%51514151515151515146515050
23Iceland1%515151415151515134955135110
24Azerbaijan1%8110151513441414134903440100
25Cyprus artist: Andrew Lambrou1%51514141515151516746676550
26Austria1%675151416751675151271015029
27Denmark1%6751415110167676767601016070
28Moldova1%815141811015167515110010150120
29Belgium Gustaph - Because of You1%12620115110134672367342203450240
30Latvia1%812011518167816781679010170100
31Malta1%126101101101671018110181130101100150
32Georgia1%1518171512018115181513610115040
33Croatia1%1261268112610110110110110118010190200
34San Marino1%1262011511016710110110167160101100180
35Slovenia Joker Out - Carpe Diem1%101201151101101101101101101130101100150
36Romania1%1511511011012011511011518190101100100
37Albania Albina & Familja Kelmendi - Duje<1%201301201201201201201201201280101150390
 

StephenMuckle

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October 8, 2020
Posts
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Belfast
Interesting to note that after the last few NFs, especially after Norway MGP and Sanremo, and with the possibility of Maria Sur winning Melfest, Ukraine's lead at the top has increased massively. Be interesting to see what happens after UMK if Kaarija is chosen
 
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