Betting Odds 2022

[Realest]

We finally have the first Odds:

1	Sweden	5%	13	11	14
2	Russia	4%		13	23
3	Italy	4%	17	12	17
4	France	4%	17	14	34
5	Switzerland	3%		14	38
6	Norway	3%		20	17
7	Cyprus	3%		18	32
7	Iceland	3%		18	32
7	Ukraine	3%		18	32
10	Australia	3%		18	36
11	Netherlands	3%		20	32
12	Belgium artist: Jérémie Makiese	3%		21	32
13	Moldova	3%		20	42
14	Finland	2%		22	36
14	Israel	2%		21	42
14	Malta	2%		21	42
17	Azerbaijan	2%		23	32
17	Denmark	2%		23	32
17	Estonia	2%		23	32
20	Czech Republic	2%		22	42
20	Lithuania	2%		22	42
20	Portugal	2%		22	42
23	Austria	2%		20	55
24	Greece	2%		24	32
25	Armenia	2%		24	38
26	Romania	2%		24	42
27	Ireland	2%	26	27	55
28	Slovenia	2%		26	55
29	Serbia	2%		25	65
30	Croatia	2%		27	55
30	Germany	2%	34	22	55
32	Spain	2%		27	60
33	United Kingdom	2%	34	27	60
34	North Macedonia	2%		23	100
35	Latvia	2%		26	90
35	Poland	2%		26	90
37	Albania	2%		25	100
38	Montenegro	2%		27	110
38	San Marino	2%		27	110
40	Georgia artist: Circus Mircus	1%		27	150
41	Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	1%		75	55

 

[midnightsun]

lol @ Azerbaijan at 13 without a song, that sums up exactly the overall quality of most of the songs after them…

 

[Zerocalcare]

lol @ Azerbaijan at 13 without a song, that sums up exactly the overall quality of most of the songs after them…

In fact, the odds speak for themselves. The favorite songs for the win are all those before 13th position (excluding Australia). In past years, those who were favorites to win generally had to orbit sixth and up at most. In this edition, however, where the general quality of many songs is more or less the same, the "favorite zone" has widened.

 

[Zerocalcare]

Portugal starts to rise in odds. Now, having overtaken France, it is in eleventh position. I wrote it, Maro should not be underestimated! She will be a very strong candidate for the win (for me she is the favorite). France, on the other hand, although I appreciate originality and sound, is a potential fader.

 

[Realest]

The "first" Betting Odds after all Songs are released.

 

[midnightsun]

This is exactly what I had expected. I think this will pretty much look like that in May and I can’t see any other song sneaking into the top 10 right now, except for MAYBE Estonia, which is I think a bit underrated in the odds and there’s also a small chance Finland will be a little bit higher.

 

[popavapeur]

Portugal starts to rise in odds. Now, having overtaken France, it is in eleventh position. I wrote it, Maro should not be underestimated! She will be a very strong candidate for the win (for me she is the favorite). France, on the other hand, although I appreciate originality and sound, is a potential fader.

I always do two rankings :

1) What I thought the very first time.
2) What I think after having all the entries, comparing them, listening to them multiple times. (and it's the one I share here with you all in the ranking game etc)

Every single year my first ranking is always closer in its results to the real final.
For sure there are faders : in the last 6 months I listened to Fuego multiple times and only one listen for Toy.
But I still remember the first time I heard Toy and it made an impact and I think that's why it won.

Not saying X or X country is gonna win but we shouldn't base "winning chances" if something is growing or fading tbh and people should bet on what they thought was very impactful the first time they heard it.

as for the odds itself, what is interesting is who did rise a lot when the song was announced and who fell, it's more accurate : that's when people heard the song for the first time. Till the rehearsals odds aren't that interesting imho

 

[Realest]

We have Top4-Odds

1		Ukraine Kalush Orchestra - Stefania	67%	1.28	1.24
2		Italy Mahmood & Blanco - Brividi	57%	1.5	1.48
3		Sweden Cornelia Jakobs - Hold Me Closer	53%	1.6	1.62
4		Greece Amanda Tenfjord - Die Together	25%	3.4	3.15
5		Poland Ochman - River	24%	3.5	3.55
6		United Kingdom Sam Ryder - Space Man	24%	3.6	3.65
7		Norway Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf a Banana	22%	3.8	4.2
8		Netherlands S10 - De Diepte	19%	4.6	4.8
9		Spain Chanel - SloMo	13%	6.5	6.2
10		Australia Sheldon Riley - Not the Same	10%	9	4.1
11		Portugal Maro - Saudade, saudade	7%	13	9
12		France Alvan & Ahez - Fulenn	6%	14	6.2
13		Serbia Konstrakta - In Corpore Sano	6%	14	9
14		Switzerland Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry	6%	14	10
15		Azerbaijan Nadir Rustamli - Fade To Black	5%	17	9
16		Cyprus Andromache - Ela	5%	19	11
17		Belgium Jérémie Makiese - Miss You	4%	21	8.4
18		Armenia Rosa Linn - Snap	4%	21	11
19		Estonia Stefan - Hope	4%	21	17
20		Finland The Rasmus - Jezebel	4%	23	14
21		San Marino Achille Lauro - Stripper	3%	29	19
22		Austria LUM!X & Pia Maria - Halo	3%	31	11
23		Malta Emma Muscat - I Am What I Am	3%	34	16
24		Moldova Z. şi Zdub & F. Advahov - Trenuleţul	3%	34	20
25		Germany Malik Harris - Rockstars	2%	41	21
26		Georgia Circus Mircus - Lock Me In	2%	41	27
27		Latvia Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad	2%	51	22
28		Iceland Systur - Með hækkandi sól	2%	51	29
29		Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	2%	56	22
30		Romania WRS - Llámame	1%	61	32
31		Israel Michael Ben David - I.M	1%	67	32
32		Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	1%	81	30
33		Croatia Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure	1%	81	32
33		Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	1%	81	32
33		Denmark Reddi - The Show	1%	81	32
36		Lithuania Monika Liu - Sentimentai	1%	101	26
37		Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	1%	101	30
37		Slovenia LPS - Disko	1%	101	30
39		North Macedonia Andrea - Circles	1%	101	36
40		Ireland Brooke Scullion - That's Rich	1%	126	36

 

[midnightsun]

Worst Top 4 in a long time/for many years. I hope that #2-4 don’t win and Ukraine… I‘m fine if they do but I wish it would be with another song, I really don’t like Stefania.

 

[Realest]

We finally have Semifinal Odds.

1		Ukraine Kalush Orchestra - Stefania	89%	1.03	1.02
2		Netherlands S10 - De Diepte	81%	1.13	1.15
3		Greece Amanda Tenfjord - Die Together	78%	1.17	1.17
4		Norway Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf a Banana	77%	1.18	1.19
5		Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	77%	1.19	1.2
6		Portugal Maro - Saudade, saudade	65%	1.4	1.4
7		Armenia Rosa Linn - Snap	63%	1.44	1.44
8		Switzerland Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry	62%	1.47	1.47
9		Austria LUM!X & Pia Maria - Halo	61%	1.51	1.51
10		Croatia Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure	58%	1.53	1.82
11		Moldova Z. şi Zdub & F. Advahov - Trenuleţul	57%	1.59	1.59
12		Lithuania Monika Liu - Sentimentai	57%	1.61	1.61
13		Latvia Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad	42%	2.16	2.16
14		Denmark Reddi - The Show	42%	2.2	2.2
15		Iceland Systur - Með hækkandi sól	39%	2.36	2.36
16		Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	27%	3.4	3.4
17		Slovenia LPS - Disko	25%	3.65	3.65

1		Sweden Cornelia Jakobs - Hold Me Closer	84%	1.03	1.03
2		Belgium Jérémie Makiese - Miss You	79%	1.09	1.1
3		Serbia Konstrakta - In Corpore Sano	75%		1.15
4		Poland Ochman - River	74%	1.16	1.17
5		Australia Sheldon Riley - Not the Same	73%	1.18	1.19
6		Estonia Stefan - Hope	72%	1.19	1.19
7		Finland The Rasmus - Jezebel	65%	1.33	1.33
8		Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	63%	1.36	1.36
9		Romania WRS - Llámame	57%	1.52	1.52
10		Cyprus Andromache - Ela	54%	1.6	1.6
11		Azerbaijan Nadir Rustamli - Fade To Black	51%	1.69	1.69
12		Malta Emma Muscat - I Am What I Am	48%	1.78	1.78
13		San Marino Achille Lauro - Stripper	48%	1.8	1.8
14		Israel Michael Ben David - I.M	42%	2.04	2.04
15		Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	36%	2.4	2.4
16		North Macedonia Andrea - Circles	33%	2.6	2.6
17		Georgia Circus Mircus - Lock Me In	27%	3.15	3.15
18		Ireland Brooke Scullion - That's Rich	19%	4.5	4.5

Surprised to see out and in.

 

[midnightsun]

Belgium second? I can see its appeal but old fashioned RnB won’t do that well I think.

The odds look pretty accurate from what I would expect. In Semi 1 Moldova will be in (Croatia out) and in Semi 2 I‘m not sure Czech Republic will make it. I think juries will make sure, Malta's in.

 

[Realest]

took away s Momentum.

1		Ukraine Kalush Orchestra - Stefania	93%	1.03	1.03
2		Netherlands S10 - De Diepte	89%	1.07	1.1
3		Norway Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf a Banana	83%	1.15	1.16
4		Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	81%	1.17	1.18
5		Portugal Maro - Saudade, saudade	80%	1.19	1.21
6		Greece Amanda Tenfjord - Die Together	79%	1.2	1.21
7		Moldova Z. şi Zdub & F. Advahov - Trenuleţul	68%	1.4	1.4
8		Armenia Rosa Linn - Snap	67%	1.43	1.44
9		Switzerland Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry	58%	1.65	1.65
10		Lithuania Monika Liu - Sentimentai	56%	1.7	1.71
11		Austria LUM!X & Pia Maria - Halo	48%	2	2.02
12		Latvia Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad	41%	2.3	2.34
13		Croatia Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure	40%	2.4	2.42
14		Iceland Systur - Með hækkandi sól	37%	2.56	2.6
15		Denmark Reddi - The Show	29%	3.25	3.3
16		Slovenia LPS - Disko	26%	3.65	3.75
17		Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	25%	3.85	3.95

E: Wth happened with and ?

1		Sweden Cornelia Jakobs - Hold Me Closer	83%	1.03
2		Poland Ochman - River	82%	1.04	1.06
3		Finland The Rasmus - Jezebel	76%	1.11	1.25
4		Australia Sheldon Riley - Not the Same	72%	1.19	1.19
4		Estonia Stefan - Hope	72%	1.19	1.19
6		Serbia Konstrakta - In Corpore Sano	66%	1.3	1.3
7		Georgia Circus Mircus - Lock Me In	63%	1.38	1.3
8		Cyprus Andromache - Ela	58%	1.49	1.49
9		Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	57%	1.52	1.52
10		Romania WRS - Llámame	53%	1.62	1.62
11		Belgium Jérémie Makiese - Miss You	52%	1.64	1.64
12		Azerbaijan Nadir Rustamli - Fade To Black	48%	1.78	1.78
13		San Marino Achille Lauro - Stripper	46%	1.85	1.85
14		Malta Emma Muscat - I Am What I Am	45%	1.91	1.91
15		Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	43%	2	2
16		Israel Michael Ben David - I.M	39%	2.22	2.22
17		North Macedonia Andrea - Circles	24%	3.55	3.55
18		Ireland Brooke Scullion - That's Rich	20%	4.3	4.3

 

[midnightsun]

Though I wish Georgia would qualify I think it’s just the hype around their mysterious appearance right now. Though their chances have definitely risen now we‘ve witnessed a bunch of countries, most of them in SF2, failing live.

I‘m concerned about Azerbaijan. I hope they‘ll make it. I get why the song might not be everyone‘s taste but NQ is absolutely not justifiable given the quality of the arrangement and his voice (yes, I do think great voices should be honored in Eurovision).

But the odds aren’t much significant right now, they aren’t much of a value before the rehearsals. Yes, some countries sucked live but on the Eurovision stage they will sound much better give the usually high quality standard of the production each year.

 

[heke1988]

I am wondering, why Switzerland is still at 13th place in Eurovision winner odds?

 

[Realest]

is out, is in again. at #4 is interesting as well.

1		Ukraine Kalush Orchestra - Stefania	92%	1.01	1.02
2		Netherlands S10 - De Diepte	87%	1.06	1.07
3		Greece Amanda Tenfjord - Die Together	86%	1.08	1.06
4		Moldova Z. şi Zdub & F. Advahov - Trenuleţul	86%		1.08
5		Norway Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf a Banana	83%	1.12	1.12
6		Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	77%	1.2	1.21
7		Armenia Rosa Linn - Snap	74%	1.26	1.27
8		Portugal Maro - Saudade, saudade	71%	1.3	1.3
9		Austria LUM!X & Pia Maria - Halo	58%	1.59	1.6
10		Switzerland Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry	58%	1.61	1.61
11		Lithuania Monika Liu - Sentimentai	55%	1.69	1.69
12		Croatia Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure	36%	2.6	2.6
13		Latvia Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad	36%	2.6	2.62
14		Iceland Systur - Með hækkandi sól	34%	2.76	2.76
15		Slovenia LPS - Disko	24%	3.95	3.95
16		Denmark Reddi - The Show	23%	3.95	4
17		Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	20%	4.6	4.6

 

[Realest]

is almost at #1.

1		Ukraine Kalush Orchestra - Stefania	89%	1.01	1.02
2		Moldova Z. şi Zdub & F. Advahov - Trenuleţul	88%	1.02	1.08
3		Netherlands S10 - De Diepte	85%		1.06
3		Norway Subwoolfer - Give That Wolf a Banana	85%	1.06	1.06
5		Greece Amanda Tenfjord - Die Together	84%	1.08	1.06
6		Switzerland Marius Bear - Boys Do Cry	79%	1.14	1.14
7		Albania Ronela Hajati - Sekret	75%	1.2	1.21
8		Armenia Rosa Linn - Snap	72%	1.26	1.27
9		Portugal Maro - Saudade, saudade	69%	1.31	1.33
10		Austria LUM!X & Pia Maria - Halo	57%	1.59	1.6
11		Lithuania Monika Liu - Sentimentai	53%	1.7	1.7
12		Latvia Citi Zēni - Eat Your Salad	34%	2.64	2.64
13		Croatia Mia Dimšić - Guilty Pleasure	34%	2.68	2.7
14		Iceland Systur - Með hækkandi sól	32%	2.8	2.8
15		Slovenia LPS - Disko	23%	3.95	3.95
16		Denmark Reddi - The Show	23%	4	4
17		Bulgaria Intelligent Music Project - Intention	20%	4.6	4.6

is gaining Momentum as well.

1		Sweden Cornelia Jakobs - Hold Me Closer	87%		1.01
2		Poland Ochman - River	86%	1.01	1.04
3		Azerbaijan Nadir Rustamli - Fade To Black	81%	1.06	1.2
4		Finland The Rasmus - Jezebel	77%	1.13	1.13
5		Estonia Stefan - Hope	73%	1.2	1.2
6		Australia Sheldon Riley - Not the Same	70%	1.25	1.25
7		Serbia Konstrakta - In Corpore Sano	69%	1.26	1.26
8		Belgium Jérémie Makiese - Miss You	66%	1.33	1.28
9		Czech Republic We Are Domi - Lights Off	55%	1.58	1.58
10		Cyprus Andromache - Ela	54%	1.61	1.64
11		Malta Emma Muscat - I Am What I Am	48%	1.81	1.81
12		Romania WRS - Llámame	48%	1.83	1.83
13		San Marino Achille Lauro - Stripper	45%	1.93	1.93
14		Montenegro Vladana - Breathe	37%	2.34	2.34
15		Israel Michael Ben David - I.M	35%	2.5	2.5
16		Georgia Circus Mircus - Lock Me In	28%	3.15	3.15
17		North Macedonia Andrea - Circles	21%	4.2	4.2
18		Ireland Brooke Scullion - That's Rich	19%	4.7	4.7

 

[WhoKnows]

Ukraine's odds to win are under 1 on oddschecker, at 11/12. First time this season?

 

[PhilD18]

Hi,

I’m new to the forum but in need of some help in regards to EW bets placed with Ladbrokes. I have had bets on for a few months now. But they have changed the amount of places from 4 to 3, AFTER I have placed the bets. Does anyone have any evidence that they were paying top 4?

If they deny it, I will want to take if further.

Any help would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks.

 

[PhilD18]

Hi,

I’m new to the forum but in need of some help in regards to EW bets placed with Ladbrokes. I have had bets on for a few months now. But they have changed the amount of places from 4 to 3, AFTER I have placed the bets. Does anyone have any evidence that they were paying top 4?

If they deny it, I will want to take if further.

Any help would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks.

Forget the last post. All sorted. They are honouring the bets. It was scary how the numbers on my bets slip changed though!

 

[4815162342]

I learned it the hard way to always make screenshots whenever doing a bet.
unibet screwed me over once when I placed 50€ on Mans winning both Melodifestivalen and Eurovision. The bet was in my account for at least a month after winning Melodifestivalen and the next time I checked I had my 50€ back, but the bet was gone from my betting history. No sign of ever placing this bet and when I asked their support they were playing dumb.

 

[esc87fan]

Moldova #2 behind Ukraine, seriously?!