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OGAE polls try to predict winners one month prior to the contest. However they only rarely have the winner as their winner.(4 times only) Is it the point system that they use at fault? Or is it solely because they don't factor in the staging!

Includes winners from 2012-2017. Because Azerbaijan would probably win the poll if it's included.

Out of the 43 countries participating in ESC there are 18 countries with a realistic shot of winning this year based on their previous winning history/song quality! However we would all like the winner to be one we don't dislike! Which of these 18 songs winning will make you sad? Please defend...